Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Cain
0.331 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Cain
0.329 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Cain
0.323 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Norris
0.316 — Avisail Garcia batting against Nikolas Turley
0.316 — Justin Turner batting against Steven Matz
0.309 — Tyler Flowers batting against Matt Cain
0.308 — Ben Gamel batting against Daniel Norris
0.303 — Matt Adams batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Starlin Castro batting against Jesse Chavez
0.301 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jesse Chavez

You could go to the Matts for a double down today, with Matt Kemp and Matt Adams of the Braves against Matt Cain. It’s fairly amazing that Cain’s ERA is only 4.99 given the opposition owns a .309/.372/.455 slash line against him. Most of the power against him came with the bases empty, which helps. Jean Segura returned from the disabled list Wednesday night and got a hit, and Gamel is the current hit streak leader with 13.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.323, 0.754 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Norris.
0.331, 0.750 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Cain.
0.329, 0.747 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Cain.
0.316, 0.746 — Justin Turner batting against Steven Matz.
0.333, 0.743 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Cain.
0.295, 0.738 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.284, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.316, 0.733 — Avisail Garcia batting against Nikolas Turley.
0.295, 0.730 — Jose Ramirez batting against Wade Miley.
0.301, 0.729 — Starlin Castro batting against Jesse Chavez.

Segura pops to the the top of the list. Kemp’s teammates, Phillips and Iciarte move ahead of Kemp as they own better three-year weighted hit averages, while Kemp has the higher 2017 number. So Phillips is the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Jett Bandy	25
Daniel Robertson	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Matthew Szczur	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Mitch Moreland	18
Franchy Cordero	17
Matt Wieters	17
Eric Thames	16
Greg Garcia	16
Greg Bird	15
Billy Hamilton	15
C.J. Cron	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Joey Rickard	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Jorge Polanco	14
Daniel Nava	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Peter Kozma	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Chris Carter	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Jose Bautista	12
Craig Gentry	12
Allen Cordoba	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Michael Conforto	11
Stuart Turner	11
Matt Olson	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Danny Valencia	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Tyler Collins	10
Stephen Vogt	10
Russell Martin	10
Luke Maile	10
Ryan Braun	10
Boog Powell	10
Alex Gordon	10
Brett Gardner	10
Dee Gordon	10
Chris Taylor	10
J.T. Riddle	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Jose Iglesias	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Yandy Diaz	10

Good luck!

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