Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Justin Turner batting against Josh Tomlin
0.320 — Avisail Garcia batting against Chris Tillman
0.314 — Corey Seager batting against Josh Tomlin
0.314 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz
0.311 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Moore
0.310 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Pivetta
0.307 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.307 — Chris Taylor batting against Josh Tomlin
0.300 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Steven Matz
0.295 — Jose Abreu batting against Chris Tillman

Tomlin allows a .314 BA this season with a .326 OBP, so his hit average allowed in 2017 is very high, .309. It might be a good day to double down on Dodgers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.361, 0.762 — Justin Turner batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.314, 0.762 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.311, 0.746 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Moore.
0.310, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.320, 0.729 — Avisail Garcia batting against Chris Tillman.
0.314, 0.723 — Corey Seager batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.300, 0.722 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Steven Matz.
0.307, 0.722 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.286, 0.721 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Moore.
0.290, 0.721 — Didi Gregorius batting against Sonny Gray.

Turner and Murphy are tied for first, but since Turner has the better Log5 probability, I will go with him as the top pick today. Murphy is 2 for 6 career against Matz. Gregorius owns the longest hit streak in the majors right now, 16 games. He collected 25 hits and one walk, with just nine strikeouts. His BABIP during the streak is .400, so putting the ball in play is helping him maintain his streak.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Carlos Gonzalez	25
Raul Mondesi	23
Jeff Mathis	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Michael Saunders	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Omar Narvaez	19
Jett Bandy	17
Zack Cozart	17
Darwin Barney	17
Victor Martinez	16
Greg Bird	15
Jedd Gyorko	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Mark Reynolds	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Carlos Santana	13
Chase D'Arnaud	13
Todd Frazier	13
Jose Lobaton	12
Kevin Pillar	12
Ehire Adrianza	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Matt Olson	11
Cliff Pennington	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Craig Gentry	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Charlie Blackmon	11
Odubel Herrera	11
Peter Kozma	11
Deven Marrero	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
JaCoby Jones	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Boog Powell	10
Ryan Braun	10
Brandon Belt	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10
Stuart Turner	10
Hanley Ramirez	10
Jared W. Hoying	10

Good luck!

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