Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson
0.311 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kyle Gibson
0.311 — Justin Turner batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.311 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jameson Taillon
0.308 — Jon Jay batting against Joe Ross
0.307 — Yadier Molina batting against Patrick Corbin
0.303 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Patrick Corbin
0.302 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin
0.302 — Jose Ramirez batting against Andrew Cashner
0.301 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson

I haven’t see Bogaerts high on the list in a while. This June seems to be an all or nothing month for him with 10 multi-hit games, and nine oh fors. In general, it looks like a good day to pick a hitter from the Red Sox or the Cardinals. Molina own the longest current hit streak at 14 games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.333, 0.753 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.297, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jon Lester.
0.295, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.311, 0.737 — Justin Turner batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.311, 0.736 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.302, 0.733 — Jose Ramirez batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.311, 0.731 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.301, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.307, 0.720 — Yadier Molina batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.288, 0.716 — Michael Brantley batting against Andrew Cashner.

Bogaerts makes the top of this list as well, making him the unanimous pick. Murphy was just off the other list, tied for 11th. Like most of the Twins, Gibson pitched better on the road this year, allowing a .364 BA at home, .265 away. Both BAs in those situations are still small sample sizes. Murphy is 1 for 6 career against Lester as he tries to extend his hit streak.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	32
Franchy Cordero	27
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Avisail Garcia	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Peter Kozma	18
Mark Zagunis	17
Gregor Blanco	17
David Freese	16
Ryder Jones	16
Eric Fryer	16
Greg Bird	15
C.J. Cron	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Allen Cordoba	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Mitch Haniger	14
Eric Thames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Alexi Amarista	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Mike Zunino	13
Hyun Soo Kim	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Stuart Turner	13
Brock Stassi	12
Nomar Mazara	12
Delino Deshields Jr.	12
Mallex Smith	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Leonys Martin	12
Sam Travis	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Matt Holliday	12
Justin Upton	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Chase D'Arnaud	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Max Moroff	11
Carlos Gomez	11
Starling Marte	11
Manny Machado	11
Yandy Diaz	10
Tom J Murphy	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Wilmer Flores	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Ruben Tejada	10
Chase Headley	10
Charlie Blackmon	10
Boog Powell	10
Tyler Collins	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Randal Grichuk	10

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2tpaTC3