Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Howie Kendrick batting against Patrick Corbin
0.324 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Musgrove
0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez
0.312 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello
0.311 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland
0.310 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo
0.309 — Ben Gamel batting against Joe Musgrove
0.308 — Josh Harrison batting against Adam Wainwright
0.308 — Eric Sogard batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.304 — Adam Frazier batting against Adam Wainwright

Daniel Murphy is so good, he even makes the top ten against a pitcher making his major league debut. Howie Kendrick continues to hit exceptionally well for an older player. He recently moved back to second base to fill in for an injured player, and is hitting .386/.449/.409 there.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.310, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.324, 0.753 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.320, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.311, 0.740 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.328, 0.736 — Howie Kendrick batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.301, 0.731 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.300, 0.729 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.308, 0.729 — Eric Sogard batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.312, 0.728 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.309, 0.725 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Joe Musgrove.

So should Murphy be ranked so high against an unknown (to the NN) pitcher? Castillo is seasonal age 24 and has not pitched above AA. He has pitched very well at AA, with tremendous three-true outcome numbers and a low ERA. He may be better than the average major league pitcher, so take the ranking with a grain of salt. He is a right-hander, so Murphy should have the platoon advantage. Jean Segura is the consensus choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Daniel Robertson	27
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Matthew Szczur	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Mitch Moreland	18
Matt Wieters	17
Greg Garcia	17
Franchy Cordero	17
Joey Rickard	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Billy Hamilton	15
C.J. Cron	15
Greg Bird	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Chris Taylor	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Jose Iglesias	14
Peter Kozma	13
J.T. Riddle	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Michael Conforto	12
Brandon Crawford	12
Starling Marte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Stuart Turner	11
Tom J Murphy	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Allen Cordoba	11
Stephen Vogt	10
Troy Tulowitzki	10
George Springer	10
Boog Powell	10
Alex Gordon	10
Tommy La Stella	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Chris Gimenez	10
Cameron Rupp	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Jay Bruce	10
Ryan Braun	10
Ian Desmond	10
Kole Calhoun	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10
Johan Camargo	10

Good luck!

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