Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain
0.338 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello
0.327 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain
0.318 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Martin Perez
0.316 — David Peralta batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.311 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marcus Stroman
0.311 — Justin Turner batting against Asher Wojciechowski
0.311 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Cain
0.305 — Trey Mancini batting against Adam Wainwright
0.304 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez

Note that there is a double header between the Indians and Twins on Saturday. That makes choosing a player from one of those games difficult, since it is sometimes tough to know who is going to rest in one of the games. The Rockies against Matt Cain should provide a target rich environment for players advancing their hit streaks. Opponents hit for a high batting average against Cain over the last three seasons, although Cain pitched well at Coors Field in that time.

Ben Gamel, in his first full year, is hitting for a high average and getting on base. This is an equal weighting of one-year and weighted three-year hit averages, so Gamel makes this list but not the Neural Network. Keep you eye on the Mariners rightfielder.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.342, 0.767 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain.
0.338, 0.758 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.327, 0.755 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain.
0.297, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Seth Lugo.
0.316, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.311, 0.737 — Justin Turner batting against Asher Wojciechowski.
0.294, 0.733 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.295, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jeff Locke.
0.302, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against David Paulino.
0.302, 0.731 — Matt Kemp batting against Jeff Locke.

Kemp is day to day and did not play on Friday. Blackmon is the consensus pick, with the two system agreeing on the top three batters. Blackmon is 6 for 20 against Cain in his career with only three strikeouts.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Carlos Gonzalez	26
Jeff Mathis	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jett Bandy	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Michael Saunders	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Omar Narvaez	19
Todd Frazier	18
Zack Cozart	17
Darwin Barney	17
Brandon Belt	16
Greg Bird	15
Odubel Herrera	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Chase D'Arnaud	13
Ehire Adrianza	12
Jose Lobaton	12
Kevin Pillar	12
Leonys Martin	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Orlando Calixte	11
Logan Forsythe	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Deven Marrero	11
Craig Gentry	11
Cliff Pennington	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Matt Olson	11
Peter Kozma	11
Boog Powell	10
Nelson Cruz	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Stuart Turner	10
Tyler Collins	10
Daniel Robertson	10
Jared Hoying	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Ryan Braun	10
Hanley Ramirez	10
Yandy Diaz	10

So if Yandy Diaz married Jett Bandy he’d be Yandy Bandy!

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2sbLESo