Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson
0.342 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman
0.337 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Davies
0.335 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Davies
0.331 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Davies
0.325 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Feldman
0.317 — Buster Posey batting against Rafael Montero
0.316 — Eddie Rosario batting against Josh Tomlin
0.315 — Tyler Flowers batting against Zach Davies
0.311 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Josh Tomlin

No real surprises here. Batters hit for a high average and high power against Davies, so it might be a good day to double down on Braves.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.325, 0.769 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Feldman.
0.351, 0.762 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.337, 0.754 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Davies.
0.331, 0.746 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Davies.
0.335, 0.743 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Davies.
0.342, 0.743 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman.
0.317, 0.740 — Buster Posey batting against Rafael Montero.
0.293, 0.739 — Jean Segura batting against Francis Martes.
0.294, 0.736 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Parker Bridwell.
0.293, 0.734 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.

The NN likes the Braves against Davies as well, but Daniel Murphy once again is the top pick, with Justin Turner the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	29
Franchy Cordero	24
Aaron Hill	23
Conor Gillaspie	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Greg Garcia	22
Jose Iglesias	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Matthew Szczur	20
J.T. Riddle	19
Ian Desmond	18
Peter Kozma	17
Eric Fryer	16
Rio Ruiz	15
C.J. Cron	15
Greg Bird	15
Jason Castro	14
Cam Perkins	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Hunter Renfroe	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Stuart Turner	13
Eugenio Suarez	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Leonys Martin	12
Matt Holliday	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Allen Cordoba	12
Jed Lowrie	11
Mike Napoli	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Eduardo Escobar	11
Nomar Mazara	11
Starling Marte	11
Elias D Diaz	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Rougned Odor	11
Stephen Vogt	10
Logan Forsythe	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Mark Zagunis	10
Tyler Collins	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Tommy La Stella	10
Aaron Hicks	10
Mark Reynolds	10
Ryan Braun	10
Chase D'Arnaud	10
Boog Powell	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Ruben Tejada	10
Luis Valbuena	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Deven Marrero	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Ian Kinsler	10

Good luck!

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