Games of the Day

The Astros visit the Yankees as two of the top teams in the American League face off. Justin Verlander takes on Domingo German. Verlander comes into the game with a 1.08 ERA as he is partying like it’s 1968. It was 50 years ago that Bob Gibson led the majors with a 1.12 ERA, and the lack of offense that season prompted MLB to lower the mound. Through this date in 1968, Gibson owned a 1.34 ERA, but was 3-4. Gibson had pitched into extra innings three times at this point, with complete games of eleven and twelve innings under his belt. Verlander stands 6-2 with a 1.08 ERA, and although Verlander started two more games due to the earlier season start, he has less innings than Gibson. German prevents hits with his high strikeout rate, as batters own a .222 BA against him. The other two legs of the pitching stool are weak, however, as he allowed five home runs and 15 walks in 29 innings.

The Mike Trout show moves to Detroit as Tyler Skaggs takes the mound for the Angels against Max Boyd. Skaggs give up the long ball, with seven home runs allowed in 55 innings, but the Tigers are last in the AL in home runs hit. Boyd pitched well at home this season with a 2.22 ERA thanks to one home run and seven walks in 24 1/3 innings.

The White Sox are playing a bit better as of late as they send Dylan Covey against the Indians and rookie Adam Plutko. Covey had a rough rookie season in 2017 as he allowed 20 home runs and 34 walks in 70 innings. In his first 13 innings of 2018, he has yet to allow a dinger, and only walked four. He induced a higher ground ball percentage this season. All three runs against Plutko this year came on solo home runs. In fact, all six runs he allowed in his career have been driven in by the four home runs he allowed.

Enjoy!

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.345 — Mark Reynolds batting against Alex Cobb.
0.343 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Cobb.
0.338 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.336 — Jean Segura batting against Doug Fister.
0.329 — Anthony Rendon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.327 — Matthew Adams batting against Alex Cobb.
0.324 — Wilmer Difo batting against Alex Cobb.
0.318 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.317 — David Peralta batting against Homer Bailey.
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.311 — Juan Soto batting against Alex Cobb.
0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.310 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.308 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.307 — Adrian Sanchez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.306 — Jose Martinez batting against Brent Suter.
0.306 — Spencer Kieboom batting against Alex Cobb.
0.305 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.304 — Andrew Stevenson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Rafael Bautista batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Matt Reynolds batting against Alex Cobb.
0.294 — Nick Castellanos batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.293 — Pedro Severino batting against Alex Cobb.
0.289 — Gerardo Parra batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.289 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.

Log5 predicts a big day for the Nationals offense, with the possible exception of Bryce Harper. It even had everyone on the disabled list ranked high. With a .379 BA allowed, I suppose Cobb could only improve. Either that, or he becomes a pitcher who allows a .400 BA.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.755 — Jean Segura batting against Doug Fister.
0.310, 0.741 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.287, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Domingo German.
0.338, 0.734 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.308, 0.730 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.343, 0.727 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Cobb.
0.314, 0.725 — Matt Kemp batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.305, 0.722 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.318, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.345, 0.720 — Mark Reynolds batting against Alex Cobb.
0.306, 0.720 — Jose Martinez batting against Brent Suter.
0.280, 0.719 — Scooter Gennett batting against Matt D Koch.
0.294, 0.717 — Nick Castellanos batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.310, 0.713 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.289, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.317, 0.710 — David Peralta batting against Homer Bailey.
0.286, 0.709 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brock Stewart.
0.281, 0.709 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.279, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jakob Junis.
0.289, 0.705 — Gerardo Parra batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.329, 0.705 — Anthony Rendon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.266, 0.704 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Matt Boyd.
0.269, 0.704 — Mookie Betts batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.268, 0.703 — Jose Abreu batting against Adam Plutko.
0.279, 0.703 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Max Fried.

One of the nice things about the NN is that is less sensitive to a bad season by a pitcher. Segura is the consensus first pick. Asdrubal Cabrera is the consensus second pick.

Note that the Mets and Braves are scheduled for a double header today, but weather threatens one or both of the games.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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Weekly Look at Offense

Through nine weeks of the season, major league games average 8.76 runs per game compared to 9.04 runs per game through the same number of weeks in 2017. (All comparisons are through nine weeks.) Hits are down across the board, with 2.26 HR per game and 14.4 other hits per game this season compared to 2.43 HR per game and 14.63 other hits per game last year. This makes sense, as strikeouts are up to 17.2 per game against 16.4 per game in 2017. Earlier in the season, strikeouts were up but hits were also up. Maybe it took awhile for defenses to adjust against hitters. Week nine was the lowest scoring week of the season at 7.91 runs per game.

It also quite possible that the ball was fixed. MLB confirmed this week what others had discovered, that their was less drag on the ball. While it took awhile to confirm this to the public, I suspect the manufacturer had already taken steps to remedy the situation. Now MLB needs to figure out how to reduce strikeouts.

Note, too, that with fewer mound visits, offense is down. So maybe all those delays to talk to the pitcher were not really needed.

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Best Batter Today

Mike Trout remains at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, although Jose Ramirez closes the gap a bit. Ramirez doubled and homered in the extra-inning Indians game. Mookie Betts remains third, but Jose Altuve rockets to fourth place as he goes 4 for 6 with a double against Cleveland. J.D. Martinez rounds out the top five.

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Memorial Day Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date. My thoughts go out to everyone who lost a family member, a comrade, or a friend in service to their country.

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Pivot Panda

Pablo Sandoval will start for the Giants at second base Sunday night:

He’s their emergency pitcher, emergency catcher, backup third baseman and backup first baseman.

Now, Pablo Sandoval will attempt to show off his versatility in a new way.

Sandoval is penciled in as the Giants’ starting second baseman on Sunday and will start at the position for the first time in his Major League career.

With second basemen Joe Panik and Alen Hanson on the disabled list, Sandoval began taking grounders at the position last week. Reserve infielder Kelby Tomlinson has started at second base with both Panik and Hanson out, but the Giants will give Tomlinson the day off against Cubs pitcher Tyler Chatwood.

He batted as a pitcher, first baseman, third baseman, pinch hitter, and designated hitter this season. He did his best as a pitcher, drawing a walk in on plate appearance for a 1.000 OBP!

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Games of the Day

The Braves and Red Sox finish their series with a great pitching match-up as Mike Foltynewicz takes on Chris Sale. Foltynewicz owns a 2.72 ERA with a high strikeout rate. He averages a little over five innings a game, as the Braves appear to not allow him to get in trouble. Sale, with a high K rate and low walk rate, gets to go into the seventh inning more often. He pitched outstanding ball at Fenway this year with a 1.96 ERA in four starts.

Gerritt Cole and Trevor Bauer finish up the Astros series at the Indians, Houston leading two games to one. Cole has slipped a bit on the Cy Young Tracker to his teammate Justin Verlander. Cole allowed three home runs in his last 11 innings. Bauer allowed three home runs all season in 65 innings.

The Nationals go for a sweep of the Marlins as Stephen Strasburg faces rookie Elieser Hernandez. Home runs hurt Strasburg this season, as he allowed 10 in 67 innings after giving up 13 last year in 175 1/3 innings. Hernandez is a control artist, with just one walk allowed in his 13 innings. He only struck out six, so teams do put the ball in play against him, and he can’t afford the extra base runners. He walked 2.7 per nine innings in his minor league career.

The name match-up of the day pits Jason Hammel against Cole Hamels. This is the first time they faced each other.

Enjoy!

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