Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.345 — Mark Reynolds batting against Alex Cobb.
0.343 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Cobb.
0.338 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.336 — Jean Segura batting against Doug Fister.
0.329 — Anthony Rendon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.327 — Matthew Adams batting against Alex Cobb.
0.324 — Wilmer Difo batting against Alex Cobb.
0.318 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.317 — David Peralta batting against Homer Bailey.
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.311 — Juan Soto batting against Alex Cobb.
0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.310 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.308 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.307 — Adrian Sanchez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.306 — Jose Martinez batting against Brent Suter.
0.306 — Spencer Kieboom batting against Alex Cobb.
0.305 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.304 — Andrew Stevenson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Rafael Bautista batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Matt Reynolds batting against Alex Cobb.
0.294 — Nick Castellanos batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.293 — Pedro Severino batting against Alex Cobb.
0.289 — Gerardo Parra batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.289 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.

Log5 predicts a big day for the Nationals offense, with the possible exception of Bryce Harper. It even had everyone on the disabled list ranked high. With a .379 BA allowed, I suppose Cobb could only improve. Either that, or he becomes a pitcher who allows a .400 BA.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.755 — Jean Segura batting against Doug Fister.
0.310, 0.741 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.287, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Domingo German.
0.338, 0.734 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.308, 0.730 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.343, 0.727 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Cobb.
0.314, 0.725 — Matt Kemp batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.305, 0.722 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.318, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.345, 0.720 — Mark Reynolds batting against Alex Cobb.
0.306, 0.720 — Jose Martinez batting against Brent Suter.
0.280, 0.719 — Scooter Gennett batting against Matt D Koch.
0.294, 0.717 — Nick Castellanos batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.310, 0.713 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.289, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.317, 0.710 — David Peralta batting against Homer Bailey.
0.286, 0.709 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brock Stewart.
0.281, 0.709 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.279, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jakob Junis.
0.289, 0.705 — Gerardo Parra batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.329, 0.705 — Anthony Rendon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.266, 0.704 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Matt Boyd.
0.269, 0.704 — Mookie Betts batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.268, 0.703 — Jose Abreu batting against Adam Plutko.
0.279, 0.703 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Max Fried.

One of the nice things about the NN is that is less sensitive to a bad season by a pitcher. Segura is the consensus first pick. Asdrubal Cabrera is the consensus second pick.

Note that the Mets and Braves are scheduled for a double header today, but weather threatens one or both of the games.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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