Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.324 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Minor.
0.294 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.292 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ryan N Carpenter.
0.288 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.287 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.285 — Michael Brantley batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.284 — Matt Kemp batting against Aaron Nola.
0.284 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.280 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.279 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.278 — Wilson Ramos batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.276 — Nick Castellanos batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.276 — Gleyber Torres batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.274 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jose Quintana.
0.274 — Starlin Castro batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.272 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.272 — George Springer batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.270 — Odubel Herrera batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.270 — Albert Almora batting against Seth Lugo.
0.268 — Starling Marte batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.266 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.265 — Austin Romine batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.265 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance McCullers.
0.264 — Jose Pirela batting against Wei-Yin Chen.

I listed 26 here because I’m not sure of the status of Mookie Betts. The Red Sox may not want to play a man short against the Astros. Altuve is 7 for 17 against Pomeranz in the regular season with two strikeouts. He’s two for two in the post season as well.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.330, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.324, 0.751 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Minor.
0.285, 0.729 — Michael Brantley batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.284, 0.718 — Matt Kemp batting against Aaron Nola.
0.292, 0.715 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ryan N Carpenter.
0.294, 0.714 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Shane Bieber.
0.270, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Seth Lugo.
0.279, 0.710 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.276, 0.710 — Nick Castellanos batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.278, 0.709 — Wilson Ramos batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.288, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.274, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.287, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.261, 0.702 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance McCullers.
0.268, 0.701 — Starling Marte batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.265, 0.700 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance McCullers.
0.280, 0.698 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.272, 0.696 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.274, 0.695 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jose Quintana.
0.270, 0.694 — Odubel Herrera batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.255, 0.694 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.266, 0.693 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.242, 0.686 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tanner Roark.
0.256, 0.686 — Jose Martinez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.284, 0.684 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.

Both systems are in agreement on Altuve and Segura as the top two players. Michael Brantley owns a 19-game hit streak, and has a .73 chance to extend it to 20 today!

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2L9NH0d