Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.312 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.309 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.299 — Nick Markakis batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.296 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.291 — Christian Yelich batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.289 — Albert Almora batting against Chris Stratton.
0.289 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Sonny Gray.
0.287 — Wilson Ramos batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.287 — Eddie Rosario batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.287 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.286 — Nick Castellanos batting against Hector Santiago.
0.285 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jason Vargas.
0.285 — Freddie Freeman batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.284 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283 — Matt Kemp batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.283 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.281 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.281 — Jonathan Villar batting against Jason Vargas.
0.280 — Hernan Perez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.278 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.277 — Michael Moustakas batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.275 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.275 — Manny Machado batting against Ryne Stanek.

Gennett comes out on top again. He’s also playing in Colorado today, which tends to help batters.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.312, 0.734 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.287, 0.732 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.309, 0.728 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.274, 0.719 — Jean Segura batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.296, 0.716 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.283, 0.715 — Matt Kemp batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.265, 0.715 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance McCullers.
0.286, 0.714 — Nick Castellanos batting against Hector Santiago.
0.289, 0.709 — Albert Almora batting against Chris Stratton.
0.299, 0.709 — Nick Markakis batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.287, 0.706 — Eddie Rosario batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.288, 0.705 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Sonny Gray.
0.291, 0.704 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.287, 0.704 — Wilson Ramos batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.256, 0.704 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.278, 0.704 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.284, 0.704 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.281, 0.702 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.259, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.275, 0.701 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.283, 0.701 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.285, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.289, 0.694 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jason Vargas.
0.275, 0.693 — Manny Machado batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.277, 0.692 — Michael Moustakas batting against Bartolo Colon.

Gennett is the unanimous first choice, with Herrera the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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