Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Jose Abreu batting against Alex Cobb.
0.340 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.336 — Corey Dickerson batting against Homer Bailey.
0.334 — Jed Lowrie batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.331 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.330 — Welington Castillo batting against Alex Cobb.
0.324 — Leury Garcia batting against Alex Cobb.
0.318 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.314 — Daniel Palka batting against Alex Cobb.
0.312 — Jose Altuve batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.309 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Archer.
0.309 — Mookie Betts batting against Chris Archer.
0.308 — Josh Harrison batting against Homer Bailey.
0.307 — Marcus Semien batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.306 — Elias Diaz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.306 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.306 — Tim Anderson batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Yoan Moncada batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Colin Moran batting against Homer Bailey.
0.294 — Manny Machado batting against Dylan Covey.
0.293 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.293 — Austin Meadows batting against Homer Bailey.
0.291 — Chad Pinder batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.288 — Josh Bell batting against Homer Bailey.
0.287 — Adam Frazier batting against Homer Bailey.

With Alex Cobb on the mound, it should be a good day for White Sox hitters. Cobb allowed 59 hits and only seven walks. The White Sox draw the second fewest walks in the majors while ranking in the middle of the league in batting average.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.331, 0.754 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.312, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.361, 0.749 — Jose Abreu batting against Alex Cobb.
0.309, 0.732 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Archer.
0.318, 0.732 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.336, 0.730 — Corey Dickerson batting against Homer Bailey.
0.309, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against Chris Archer.
0.334, 0.724 — Jed Lowrie batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.340, 0.715 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.330, 0.712 — Welington Castillo batting against Alex Cobb.
0.278, 0.712 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luiz Gohara.
0.293, 0.710 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.294, 0.708 — Manny Machado batting against Dylan Covey.
0.284, 0.708 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Doug Fister.
0.272, 0.706 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.264, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Jon Lester.
0.274, 0.703 — Matt Kemp batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.308, 0.701 — Josh Harrison batting against Homer Bailey.
0.324, 0.700 — Leury Garcia batting against Alex Cobb.
0.276, 0.699 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.270, 0.698 — Albert Almora batting against Adam Plutko.
0.281, 0.697 — Gerardo Parra batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.271, 0.694 — Jon Jay batting against Michael Wacha.
0.306, 0.694 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.267, 0.693 — Jose Martinez batting against Jakob Junis.

Segura comes out on top in the NN, but Abreu is the consensus first choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2IJyzpg