Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.324 — Albert Almora batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.315 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.314 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Harvey.
0.312 — Javier Baez batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.312 — Manny Machado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.309 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304 — Willson Contreras batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.301 — Tommy La Stella batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.300 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jason Hammel.
0.298 — Kris Bryant batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.296 — Brandon Crawford batting against Matt Harvey.
0.295 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.291 — Ben Zobrist batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.291 — Victor Caratini batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.291 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.287 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jason Hammel.
0.285 — Trey Mancini batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.284 — Nick Hundley batting against Matt Harvey.
0.284 — Adam Jones batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.283 — Steve Cishek batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.282 — Jose Abreu batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.282 — Evan Longoria batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282 — David C Bote batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.281 — Kevin Pillar batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.280 — Mark Zagunis batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.280 — Ryon Healy batting against Bartolo Colon.

Almora was a high BA, low OBP player his first two seasons in the majors. This year, he is more high BA, high OBP, which is a great combination. His three-year plate appearances are approaching the point where the regression toward the MLB hit average is diminishing, so the system is seeing him more and more as they type of batter who earns his OBP through hits. The more he plays, the more we’ll be seeing him on these lists.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.309, 0.742 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.314, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Harvey.
0.324, 0.726 — Albert Almora batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.312, 0.722 — Manny Machado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295, 0.720 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.278, 0.719 — J.D. Martinez batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.291, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.257, 0.715 — Jose Altuve batting against Garrett Richards.
0.300, 0.713 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jason Hammel.
0.279, 0.708 — Michael Brantley batting against Ryan N Carpenter.
0.282, 0.707 — Jose Abreu batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.272, 0.706 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ryan N Carpenter.
0.312, 0.705 — Javier Baez batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.276, 0.702 — Starling Marte batting against Hector Santiago.
0.280, 0.702 — Ryon Healy batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.287, 0.701 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jason Hammel.
0.285, 0.699 — Trey Mancini batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.279, 0.698 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against J.A. Happ.
0.268, 0.695 — Howie Kendrick batting against CC Sabathia.
0.275, 0.695 — Corey Dickerson batting against Hector Santiago.
0.296, 0.695 — Brandon Crawford batting against Matt Harvey.
0.264, 0.694 — Mookie Betts batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.273, 0.694 — Eddie Rosario batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.284, 0.694 — Adam Jones batting against Nick Pivetta.

This is a tough pick. Over the 2016-2018 period, Colon’s opposition hit average is .273, but in 2018, the regressed number is .213. Both Segura and Gordon have excellent one and three season hit averages. Colon is tends to be in the strike zone, and Segura and Gordon don’t take walks anyway. In your own mind, the excellence of Colon’s pitching this year might outweigh his longer term trend. That’s what’s great about the NN. It’s seen match-ups like this, and has a good idea that the three-year probability tends to win out.

For their careers, Gordon hits Colon well, Segura doesn’t. Neither of them strikes out much against Colon, Gordon with one K, Segura with none. They put the ball in play.

Segura is the consensus first pick, Almora the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2rMqycI