Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Corey Dickerson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.317 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.309 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.305 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.305 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fiers.
0.300 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.298 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Quintana.
0.295 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Urena.
0.291 — Odubel Herrera batting against John Gant.
0.290 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.289 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.289 — Manny Machado batting against Rick Porcello.
0.288 — Elias Diaz batting against Clayton Richard.
0.287 — Albert Almora batting against Sal Romano.
0.284 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ross Stripling.
0.284 — Jose Martinez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.281 — Howie Kendrick batting against Rich Hill.
0.280 — Colin Moran batting against Clayton Richard.
0.280 — Josh Bell batting against Clayton Richard.
0.278 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.278 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Sergio Romo.
0.278 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Urena.
0.276 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.276 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.276 — Javier Baez batting against Sal Romano.
0.276 — Francisco Cervelli batting against Clayton Richard.
0.276 — Jose Osuna batting against Clayton Richard.
0.276 — Willson Contreras batting against Sal Romano.

Dickerson is having a great year at the plate, with a high batting average and not too many walks. He also struck out just 18 times.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.742 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.309, 0.736 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.326, 0.732 — Corey Dickerson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305, 0.727 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fiers.
0.305, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.298, 0.719 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Quintana.
0.291, 0.719 — Odubel Herrera batting against John Gant.
0.300, 0.712 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.289, 0.712 — Manny Machado batting against Rick Porcello.
0.284, 0.711 — Jose Martinez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.290, 0.709 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.295, 0.707 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Urena.
0.273, 0.706 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.243, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Corey Kluber.
0.284, 0.705 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ross Stripling.
0.268, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.276, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.287, 0.702 — Albert Almora batting against Sal Romano.
0.278, 0.701 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Sergio Romo.
0.267, 0.698 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.281, 0.697 — Howie Kendrick batting against Rich Hill.
0.278, 0.697 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.278, 0.694 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Urena.
0.271, 0.692 — Jed Lowrie batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.265, 0.692 — Jose Abreu batting against Ariel Jurado.

Sergura moves to the top of the list, as he owns better three-year numbers than Dickerson. Segura is the consensus first choice, Dickerson the consensus second choice.

Note that Howie Kendrick appears twice on the list, due to the Nationals and Dodgers playing a double header. The Cubs and Red also play a double header, so be careful picking players from those games.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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