Beat the Streak Pick

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.358 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova
0.305 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Joey Votto batting against Ivan Nova
0.301 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Estrada
0.295 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luis Castillo
0.294 — Tucker Barnhart batting against Ivan Nova
0.292 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Ivan Nova
0.289 — Alex Blandino batting against Ivan Nova
0.289 — Jose Abreu batting against Dylan Bundy
0.287 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Zach Davies

Sorry for only ten today, I’ve been having technical difficulties with the program.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.358, 0.755 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ivan Nova.
0.278, 0.727 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.285, 0.722 — Jean Segura batting against Josh Lucas.
0.289, 0.711 — Jose Abreu batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.301, 0.711 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Estrada.
0.287, 0.705 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Zach Davies.
0.295, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luis Castillo.
0.255, 0.702 — J.D. Martinez batting against Blake Snell.
0.255, 0.695 — Mookie Betts batting against Blake Snell.
0.305, 0.695 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.

It’s a Scooter Gennett day.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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