Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.312 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ty Blach.
0.302 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.301 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach.
0.299 — Jed Lowrie batting against Joseph Biagini.
0.298 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ty Blach.
0.297 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach.
0.294 — J.D. Martinez batting against David Hess.
0.294 — Mookie Betts batting against David Hess.
0.290 — Kevin Pillar batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.290 — Buster Posey batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.285 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.283 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.283 — Ender Inciarte batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.283 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.283 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Minor.
0.282 — Albert Almora batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.282 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sonny Gray.
0.282 — Brandon Crawford batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.282 — Scooter Gennett batting against Yu Darvish.
0.281 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.280 — David Dahl batting against Ty Blach.
0.279 — Michael Moustakas batting against Sonny Gray.
0.277 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.276 — Jon Jay batting against Sonny Gray.
0.276 — Ozzie Albies batting against Wei-Yin Chen.

Arenado hit very well over the last 30 days or so. He recorded 11 multi-hit games in his last 26.

I want to note a strategy that might screw up this system. For the second day in a row, the Rays are starting reliever Sergio Romo against the Angels:

Cash’s plan going into the game was to minimize the number of times Yarbrough would have to face the heart of an Angels’ lineup heavy on right-handed batters.

“Try not to read too much into it, but it did go really, really well with Romo’s performance,” Cash said. “Once we got the lead, wanted to get him out and hand the ball off to Yarbs so he could kind of get comfortable. But I was really impressed with Sergio, the way he handled everything, because he might not admit to it but that’s totally different. It’s totally different than what he’s ever been accustomed to and he adjusted to it. Threw strikes, opened the game with a slider, so it was just like he was pitching in the ninth inning.”

The approach Sunday will likely have a similar look, with Romo throwing one or two innings before the Rays turn to another pitcher. In this case, it could be left-handed starter Anthony Banda, who is 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA, though right-handed relievers Matt Andriese and Austin Pruitt might be options.

“We’ll just kind of see how the first inning, first two innings play out,” Cash said.

The projected hit averages above are based on the starting pitcher, so Log5 probably is underestimating the Angels chances of getting a hit. The NN should have seen enough examples of starting pitchers leaving early (due to injury or ineffectiveness) to handle that eventuality.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.283, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.294, 0.727 — J.D. Martinez batting against David Hess.
0.312, 0.726 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ty Blach.
0.272, 0.721 — Jean Segura batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.297, 0.721 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.301, 0.720 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach.
0.294, 0.719 — Mookie Betts batting against David Hess.
0.294, 0.715 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach.
0.302, 0.714 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.298, 0.712 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ty Blach.
0.290, 0.711 — Buster Posey batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.283, 0.710 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.282, 0.709 — Scooter Gennett batting against Yu Darvish.
0.299, 0.709 — Jed Lowrie batting against Joseph Biagini.
0.269, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance McCullers.
0.283, 0.704 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Minor.
0.271, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.283, 0.703 — Ender Inciarte batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.258, 0.702 — Dee Gordon batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.282, 0.701 — Albert Almora batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.285, 0.701 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.282, 0.700 — Whit Merrifield batting against Sonny Gray.
0.281, 0.700 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.259, 0.698 — Jose Ramirez batting against Lance McCullers.
0.277, 0.696 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.271, 0.696 — Jose Martinez batting against Aaron Nola.

Altuve is back at the top of the list after a five day absence. Carassco doesn’t allow many batters to reach, but when he does, it’s usually via the hit. Arenado is the consensus first pick. There is quite a bit of disagreement between the two systems today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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