Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zachary Godley.
0.315 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.315 — Jean Segura batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.308 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.303 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.302 — Wilson Ramos batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.300 — Jose Altuve batting against CC Sabathia.
0.299 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.295 — Nick Markakis batting against Steven Matz.
0.292 — Jose Martinez batting against Zach Davies.
0.290 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Steven Matz.
0.290 — Odubel Herrera batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.279 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.279 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.278 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies.
0.276 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.276 — Mallex Smith batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.276 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.276 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.274 — Nick Castellanos batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.272 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Kingham.
0.270 — Manny Machado batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.270 — Mitch Moreland batting against Marco Estrada.
0.269 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Marco Estrada.
0.269 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.

Gennett had another big day on Monday in a Cincinnati loss, going 3 for 5. Both Betts and Segura and injured but not on the disabled list, so watch to see if they are playing. Betts has left-side tightness, Segura a concussion.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.300, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against CC Sabathia.
0.315, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.321, 0.743 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zachary Godley.
0.315, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.308, 0.725 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.302, 0.724 — Wilson Ramos batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.299, 0.721 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.303, 0.720 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.268, 0.715 — Michael Brantley batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.295, 0.714 — Nick Markakis batting against Steven Matz.
0.290, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting against Steven Matz.
0.292, 0.713 — Jose Martinez batting against Zach Davies.
0.290, 0.711 — Odubel Herrera batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.272, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Kingham.
0.279, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.279, 0.708 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.274, 0.705 — Nick Castellanos batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.269, 0.705 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.276, 0.704 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.290, 0.703 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.266, 0.700 — Jon Jay batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.266, 0.698 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.278, 0.697 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies.
0.268, 0.697 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.276, 0.694 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marco Estrada.

Altuve is two for six career against Sabathia in the regular season, two for nine if you include the post-season. Gennett is the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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