Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.324 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Harvey.
0.317 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.302 — Starlin Castro batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.299 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.295 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Boyd.
0.295 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.295 — Gleyber Torres batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.294 — Michael Brantley batting against Jason Hammel.
0.294 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.293 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.292 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.290 — Cody Bellinger batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290 — Aaron Judge batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.288 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.287 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Lance Lynn.
0.287 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jason Hammel.
0.286 — Buster Posey batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285 — James McCann batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.284 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Boyd.
0.284 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jason Hammel.
0.283 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.282 — Victor Martinez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.279 — Jed Lowrie batting against Sonny Gray.

Torreyes collected 17 hits and one walk. All his averages are fairly highly regressed, but he still does well because he walks so little with a decently high batting average. Graveman allowed 41 hits in 28 1/3 innings this year. Torreyes likely won’t start, but it’s a good day to pick a Yankees hitter. Gleyber Torres owns an eight-game hit streak during which he’s hitting .407.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.295, 0.739 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Boyd.
0.288, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.325, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.324, 0.727 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Harvey.
0.284, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Boyd.
0.317, 0.722 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.294, 0.722 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.275, 0.712 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.288, 0.711 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.294, 0.710 — Michael Brantley batting against Jason Hammel.
0.302, 0.710 — Starlin Castro batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.286, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.271, 0.707 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.287, 0.705 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Lance Lynn.
0.295, 0.702 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.272, 0.700 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.287, 0.698 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jason Hammel.
0.299, 0.698 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.261, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.283, 0.697 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.266, 0.695 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.279, 0.693 — Jed Lowrie batting against Sonny Gray.
0.284, 0.692 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jason Hammel.
0.269, 0.691 — Corey Dickerson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.267, 0.688 — Freddie Freeman batting against Daniel Straily.

Wilson Ramos makes this list, and he currently holds the longest hit streak in the majors, 16 games. He’s 25 for 62 with five walks during the streak.

Dee Gordon once against comes out at the top of the list. He beats Altuve due to the opposing pitcher. Castellanos and Kemp are the consensus 1-2, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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