Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Leake.
0.309 — Michael Moustakas batting against Chris Tillman.
0.309 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ty Blach.
0.299 — Jon Jay batting against Chris Tillman.
0.292 — Whit Merrifield batting against Chris Tillman.
0.291 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Tillman.
0.287 — Buster Posey batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.286 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Mike Leake.
0.285 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.283 — Manny Machado batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.281 — Dee Gordon batting against J.A. Happ.
0.280 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Mike Leake.
0.279 — Jorge Soler batting against Chris Tillman.
0.278 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zack Greinke.
0.276 — Dwight Smith batting against Mike Leake.
0.275 — Paulo Orlando batting against Chris Tillman.
0.274 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.272 — Alex Gordon batting against Chris Tillman.
0.272 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.272 — Maikel Franco batting against Ty Blach.
0.271 — Alcides Escobar batting against Chris Tillman.
0.270 — Luke Maile batting against Mike Leake.
0.269 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.268 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.268 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Ty Blach.
0.268 — Dalton Pompey batting against Mike Leake.
0.268 — Nick Hundley batting against Vincent Velasquez.

Pillar is a hitter whose OBP depends heavily on his batting average. He’s hitting over .300 this season, so on a day with few games he pops to the top of the Log5 list.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.281, 0.726 — Dee Gordon batting against J.A. Happ.
0.309, 0.722 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ty Blach.
0.313, 0.711 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Leake.
0.269, 0.710 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.309, 0.709 — Michael Moustakas batting against Chris Tillman.
0.272, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.287, 0.705 — Buster Posey batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.268, 0.703 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.262, 0.701 — Jean Segura batting against J.A. Happ.
0.299, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against Chris Tillman.
0.285, 0.701 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.274, 0.700 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.278, 0.696 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zack Greinke.
0.292, 0.695 — Whit Merrifield batting against Chris Tillman.
0.283, 0.694 — Manny Machado batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.264, 0.693 — Starlin Castro batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.258, 0.688 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jose Berrios.
0.291, 0.687 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Tillman.
0.265, 0.684 — Jose Martinez batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.262, 0.684 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.252, 0.684 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.260, 0.682 — Lorenzo Cain batting against German Marquez.
0.265, 0.681 — Thomas Pham batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.264, 0.681 — Christian Yelich batting against German Marquez.
0.255, 0.680 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.286, 0.680 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Mike Leake.

Gordon went 0 for 5 Wednesday night to end the NN’s current streak. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself against Happ. Happ’s been tough to hit this year, with a .218/.282/.378 opposition slash line.

Pillar is the consensus first choice, Odubel Herrera the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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