Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.375 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Moore.
0.328 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.321 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.320 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.319 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fiers.
0.314 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.313 — Ryon Healy batting against Matt Moore.
0.311 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.310 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.309 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin.
0.304 — Mitch Haniger batting against Matt Moore.
0.302 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.300 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Matt Moore.
0.298 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ross Stripling.
0.296 — Brandon Belt batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.296 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.294 — Evan Longoria batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.288 — Guillermo Heredia batting against Matt Moore.
0.288 — Brian Anderson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Jason Vargas.
0.284 — Miguel Rojas batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283 — Austin Jackson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281 — Nelson Cruz batting against Matt Moore.

Segura against Moore produces a huge probable hit average. Since the start of the 2016 season Segura hit .314 with a .358 OBP. Moore allowed a .272 BA and a .341 OBP. This year, however, Moore is at .344/.419 and that one year average looms large in the calculation. It is especially bad since the MLB hit average is very low, .222.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.375, 0.776 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Moore.
0.309, 0.733 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin.
0.320, 0.732 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.266, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Severino.
0.319, 0.730 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fiers.
0.328, 0.726 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.274, 0.726 — Scooter Gennett batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.314, 0.726 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.321, 0.726 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.293, 0.724 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.263, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.310, 0.720 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.297, 0.716 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ross Stripling.
0.272, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.276, 0.709 — Mookie Betts batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.275, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Derek Holland.
0.313, 0.708 — Ryon Healy batting against Matt Moore.
0.311, 0.708 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.270, 0.704 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brad Keller.
0.296, 0.703 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.263, 0.701 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Derek Holland.
0.302, 0.700 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.259, 0.697 — Wilson Ramos batting against Sean Manaea.
0.265, 0.697 — Gerardo Parra batting against Derek Holland.
0.260, 0.696 — Starling Marte batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.262, 0.696 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Julio Teheran.

The NN also produces a huge lead for Segura. The .776 is the highest probability for a batter calculated this season. Here are the parameters for the match-up, all hit averages (Hits/PA):

Parameters: [Pit 2018, Pit 2016-2018, Bat 2018, Bat 2016-2018, Non-pit LgAvg 2018, Park Avg. 2016-2018]
Parameters: [‘0.300’, ‘0.263’, ‘0.316’, ‘0.292’, ‘0.222’, ‘0.223’]

The three-year hit averages dominate the calculation, but when both one year numbers are high, as here, it gives the probability a big boost. Segura is just 2 for 10 against Moore in his career, but with only one strikeout.

J.T. Realmuto is the consensus second choice. Note also that Michael Brantley is working on an 18 game hit streak.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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