Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.368 — J.D. Martinez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.361 — Mookie Betts batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.336 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.329 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Moore.
0.320 — Kevin Pillar batting against Brett Anderson.
0.317 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Matt Moore.
0.315 — Hanley Ramirez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.315 — Albert Almora batting against Homer Bailey.
0.315 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.311 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brent Suter.
0.311 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ivan Nova.
0.308 — Mitch Moreland batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.305 — Jose Pirela batting against Ivan Nova.
0.303 — Javier Baez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.303 — Leury Garcia batting against Matt Moore.
0.302 — Welington Castillo batting against Matt Moore.
0.301 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.300 — Brock Holt batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.297 — Travis Jankowski batting against Ivan Nova.
0.297 — Odubel Herrera batting against Michael Wacha.
0.296 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.296 — Kris Bryant batting against Homer Bailey.
0.296 — Rafael Devers batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.295 — Willson Contreras batting against Homer Bailey.
0.292 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Moore.

Martinez and Betts are two of the top hitters in the game right now, and Alex Cobb allowed 49 hits in 29 1/3 innings. Looks like a match made in Beat the Streak heaven. Although he’s not on the top 25, Christian Vazquez hits Cobb really well.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.368, 0.765 — J.D. Martinez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.361, 0.752 — Mookie Betts batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.329, 0.728 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Moore.
0.336, 0.727 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.296, 0.727 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.297, 0.725 — Odubel Herrera batting against Michael Wacha.
0.315, 0.724 — Albert Almora batting against Homer Bailey.
0.311, 0.723 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brent Suter.
0.290, 0.720 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.320, 0.719 — Kevin Pillar batting against Brett Anderson.
0.315, 0.718 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.265, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.311, 0.712 — Eric Hosmer batting against Ivan Nova.
0.270, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jon Lester.
0.284, 0.705 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ross Stripling.
0.303, 0.703 — Javier Baez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.317, 0.701 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Matt Moore.
0.269, 0.701 — Nolan Arenado batting against Derek Holland.
0.285, 0.701 — Manny Machado batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.288, 0.700 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Zachary Godley.
0.262, 0.698 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Derek Holland.
0.305, 0.697 — Jose Pirela batting against Ivan Nova.
0.291, 0.697 — Jed Lowrie batting against Marco Estrada.
0.315, 0.696 — Hanley Ramirez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.272, 0.693 — Nick Castellanos batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.262, 0.693 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Freeland.

The two systems are in agreement on the top two in the list. It looks like a good night to double down on the Red Sox.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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