Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Eddie Rosario batting against Mike Leake.
0.325 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Harvey.
0.323 — Scooter Gennett batting against German Marquez.
0.323 — Albert Almora batting against Ty Blach.
0.312 — Gerardo Parra batting against Matt Harvey.
0.311 — Jose Abreu batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.310 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Harvey.
0.307 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.302 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.300 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.298 — Javier Baez batting against Ty Blach.
0.297 — Christian Yelich batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.293 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.292 — Tommy La Stella batting against Ty Blach.
0.291 — Kris Bryant batting against Ty Blach.
0.291 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Mike Leake.
0.291 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.290 — David Dahl batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Willson Contreras batting against Ty Blach.
0.284 — Noel A Cuevas batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283 — Nomar Mazara batting against Jason Hammel.
0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.282 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.282 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.282 — Gregorio Petit batting against Mike Leake.

Rosario is batting .292 with a .314 OBP this season, so he collects a lot of hits without walking much. That gives him a fairly high hit average. On top of that, his strikeout rate is moderate for a power hitter. All in all, he’s a good batter for extending hitting streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.323, 0.747 — Scooter Gennett batting against German Marquez.
0.282, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.325, 0.737 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Harvey.
0.330, 0.734 — Eddie Rosario batting against Mike Leake.
0.311, 0.734 — Jose Abreu batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.323, 0.733 — Albert Almora batting against Ty Blach.
0.310, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Harvey.
0.312, 0.724 — Gerardo Parra batting against Matt Harvey.
0.270, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Jose Berrios.
0.307, 0.720 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.300, 0.719 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.255, 0.714 — Michael Brantley batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.275, 0.713 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.302, 0.709 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.275, 0.708 — Nick Castellanos batting against James Shields.
0.274, 0.706 — Odubel Herrera batting against J.A. Happ.
0.282, 0.701 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.293, 0.701 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.275, 0.700 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.282, 0.699 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.297, 0.698 — Christian Yelich batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.298, 0.695 — Javier Baez batting against Ty Blach.
0.266, 0.694 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Strahm.
0.268, 0.694 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jhoulys Chacin.

Gennett went five for five Saturday night, giving the majors two five hit games in one night. It’s the second time it happened this season after not happening at all in 2017. The last time there were three five-hit games in one day was on 8/2/2010. Gennett’s 2018 hit average is now a whopping .313 against a league average of .221.

Gennett is the consensus first choice with Rosario and Arenado tied for second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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