Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Games Back in First Place

The Red Sox won and the Yankees lost, giving the Red Sox a 1/2 game lead in the AL East. The Yankees, however, are still in first place due to their better winning percentage. This oddity can happen when two very good teams are very close in terms of winning percentage, but one has played fewer games than the other.

Winning percentage is an approximation of the talent of the team. Games back is a measure of the difference in games over .500. The Red Sox are 18 games over .500, the Yankees 17 games over .500. Games back is the difference divided by two. So (17-18)/2 = -0.5, so the Yankees are 1/2 game behind the Red Sox. Bases on their .689 winning percentage, the Yankees would win 111.6 games. Based on their .688 winning percentage, they Red Sox are projected to win 11.45 games. Rounding, the Yankees would win 112 and the Red Sox 111. So the Yankees are correctly in first place, but need some wins to balance the games over .500 ledger.

Two teams in the same division winning 110 games would be wild.



from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2s1Q91s

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