Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.303 — Francisco Lindor batting against Michael Fiers.
0.294 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.279 — Eddie Rosario batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.279 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Quintana.
0.276 — Jed Lowrie batting against Rick Porcello.
0.275 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chris Stratton.
0.274 — Buster Posey batting against Sal Romano.
0.274 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.272 — Wilson Ramos batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.271 — Matt M Duffy batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.271 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Quintana.
0.271 — Dee Gordon batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.269 — George Springer batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.267 — Carlos Correa batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.266 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.266 — Nolan Arenado batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.266 — Jose Pirela batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.264 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Lance McCullers.
0.264 — Jean Segura batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.264 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.262 — Nick Castellanos batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.262 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jose Quintana.
0.261 — Mallex Smith batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.261 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.261 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Anderson.

It looks like a good day to pick an Indians hitter against Mike Fiers. Fiers allowed a .282 BA so far this season, but just a .312 OBP. When someone gets on against him, they get on via a hit.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.309, 0.728 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.294, 0.716 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.271, 0.716 — Dee Gordon batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.303, 0.713 — Francisco Lindor batting against Michael Fiers.
0.275, 0.708 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chris Stratton.
0.264, 0.707 — Jean Segura batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.276, 0.704 — Jed Lowrie batting against Rick Porcello.
0.244, 0.703 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sean Manaea.
0.279, 0.700 — Eddie Rosario batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.274, 0.700 — Buster Posey batting against Sal Romano.
0.274, 0.695 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.272, 0.694 — Wilson Ramos batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.261, 0.694 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.264, 0.694 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.264, 0.693 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Lance McCullers.
0.279, 0.693 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Quintana.
0.271, 0.691 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Quintana.
0.262, 0.691 — Nick Castellanos batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.266, 0.691 — Nolan Arenado batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.271, 0.686 — Matt M Duffy batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.262, 0.686 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jose Quintana.
0.235, 0.683 — Mookie Betts batting against Sean Manaea.
0.267, 0.679 — Carlos Correa batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.261, 0.678 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.255, 0.678 — Gerardo Parra batting against Joey Lucchesi.

Jose Altuve beats out the Cleveland hitters using the NN. Michael Brantley is tied with Altuve for the consensus first choice. Altuve is 2 for 5 career against Heaney, while Brantley is 1 for 8 against Fiers.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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