Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Wilson Ramos batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.324 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.319 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.315 — Odubel Herrera batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.314 — Mallex Smith batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.305 — Matt Kemp batting against Homer Bailey.
0.304 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Archer.
0.301 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.301 — C.J. Cron batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.301 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.299 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.299 — Joey Wendle batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.294 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Boyd.
0.293 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.291 — Manny Machado batting against Matt Andriese.
0.290 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.289 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.288 — Jesus Sucre batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.286 — Johnny D Field batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.286 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.285 — Denard Span batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.284 — James McCann batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.283 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Boyd.
0.283 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.

Ramos owns a 17-game hit streak, longest in the majors at the moment. It looks like a good day for the streak to continue as Alex Cobb allowed 42 hits in 23 2/3 innings so far this year.

There are two double headers today, so be careful choosing batters playing in those games. Players often get a rest in one of the two games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.294, 0.739 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Boyd.
0.301, 0.737 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.315, 0.730 — Odubel Herrera batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.330, 0.729 — Wilson Ramos batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.324, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.283, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Boyd.
0.301, 0.725 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.289, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.305, 0.715 — Matt Kemp batting against Homer Bailey.
0.304, 0.711 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Archer.
0.319, 0.709 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.290, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.272, 0.708 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.291, 0.708 — Manny Machado batting against Matt Andriese.
0.282, 0.706 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Zach Eflin.
0.282, 0.706 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286, 0.705 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.282, 0.704 — Starling Marte batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.314, 0.702 — Mallex Smith batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.258, 0.699 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chase Anderson.
0.254, 0.697 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chase Anderson.
0.283, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.275, 0.693 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Doug Fister.
0.274, 0.693 — Starlin Castro batting against Michael Soroka.

You can actually double down on Dee Gordon today! Altuve is the consensus first choice, and Ramos against Cobb (game two of the double header) is the second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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