Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.356 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.331 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.329 — Jed Lowrie batting against Mike Leake.
0.317 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.310 — Jose Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.305 — Nick Markakis batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.305 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.304 — Starlin Castro batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.301 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Mike Leake.
0.300 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Harvey.
0.300 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.299 — Jose Abreu batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.298 — Elias Diaz batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297 — Nick Castellanos batting against Lance Lynn.
0.295 — Marcus Semien batting against Mike Leake.
0.292 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.292 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.292 — Thomas Pham batting against Jason Hammel.
0.291 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.290 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.288 — Trea Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
0.288 — Colin Moran batting against Matt Harvey.
0.286 — Maikel Franco batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.286 — Nick Williams batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.285 — Jean Segura batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.285 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.285 — Chad Pinder batting against Mike Leake.

McCarthy allowed a .321 BA this year with a .376 OBP. That leads to a high hit average, .300, and given that he’s faced about 200 batters, it’s not longer being regressed to the mean. It’s a good day to choose a Phillies hitter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.356, 0.751 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.317, 0.749 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.331, 0.731 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.285, 0.727 — Jean Segura batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.329, 0.724 — Jed Lowrie batting against Mike Leake.
0.300, 0.724 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.310, 0.718 — Jose Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.299, 0.717 — Jose Abreu batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.304, 0.717 — Starlin Castro batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.305, 0.713 — Nick Markakis batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.267, 0.709 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jacob Faria.
0.285, 0.708 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.297, 0.707 — Nick Castellanos batting against Lance Lynn.
0.269, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.291, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.290, 0.701 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.274, 0.699 — Andrelton Simmons batting against J.A. Happ.
0.300, 0.698 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Harvey.
0.273, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against James Shields.
0.264, 0.698 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd.
0.265, 0.698 — Mookie Betts batting against Jacob Faria.
0.271, 0.697 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brock Stewart.
0.249, 0.697 — Michael Brantley batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.305, 0.696 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.279, 0.696 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Suarez.

The two systems are in agreement on the top pick, Odubel Herrera. Corey Dickerson is the consensus second choice. Note how Segura jumps from 25th by Log5 to 4th by NN. Cahill’s number right now are about league average, but Segura’s good three-year numbers are being boosted by his .302 hit average in 2018.

Herrera is hitting .425 at home this year. The NN doesn’t know that, but it’s just another reason to give him a go today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2LhrsWK