Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.310 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.309 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Lauer.
0.309 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.307 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Chris Archer.
0.306 — John Hicks batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.303 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luke Weaver.
0.299 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.299 — Starlin Castro batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.296 — James McCann batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.290 — Grayson J Greiner batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.289 — Jose Iglesias batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.288 — Niko Goodrum batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.286 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Soroka.
0.286 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.284 — Matt Boyd batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.283 — Peter Kozma batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.283 — JaCoby Jones batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.281 — Dixon Machado batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.280 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.280 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Bettis.
0.280 — Victor Martinez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.279 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.279 — Elias Diaz batting against Eric Lauer.

Since the start of the 2016 season, Marco Gonzales allowed a .334 BA with a .371 OBP. He’s a hit maker. Log5 is begging you to choose a Tigers batter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.310, 0.738 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.340, 0.734 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.303, 0.725 — Odubel Herrera batting against Luke Weaver.
0.278, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Boyd.
0.309, 0.720 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Lauer.
0.275, 0.719 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Boyd.
0.299, 0.719 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.307, 0.718 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Chris Archer.
0.309, 0.714 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299, 0.712 — Starlin Castro batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.286, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.280, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.280, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Chad Bettis.
0.276, 0.706 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.292, 0.704 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.286, 0.703 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Soroka.
0.278, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against David Price.
0.279, 0.696 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.273, 0.695 — Matt M Duffy batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.266, 0.690 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.306, 0.689 — John Hicks batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.278, 0.689 — Jose Martinez batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.269, 0.688 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.274, 0.688 — Eric Hosmer batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.264, 0.688 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tyler Skaggs.

J.D. Martinez collected 55 hits this year with just 14 walks, and he’s pounding the ball at home. Martinez and Castellanos are tied for the consensus first pick, so it may be a good day to double down.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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