Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.306 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.293 — Jose Martinez batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.287 — Eddie Rosario batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.286 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.285 — Justin Turner batting against German Marquez.
0.284 — Miguel Rojas batting against Jason Vargas.
0.283 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.282 — Brian Anderson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — Michael Moustakas batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Whit Merrifield batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.279 — Jon Jay batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.278 — Thomas Pham batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.278 — Jose Abreu batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.277 — Manny Machado batting against Hector Santiago.
0.276 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.275 — Nolan Arenado batting against Walker Buehler.
0.274 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.272 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.269 — Derek Dietrich batting against Jason Vargas.
0.267 — Chris Taylor batting against German Marquez.
0.265 — Cody Bellinger batting against German Marquez.
0.265 — Miguel Andujar batting against Bartolo Colon.

Castro is consistently a high batting average hitter who doesn’t walk a lot, a perfect players for extending a hit streak. Vargas allowed 26 hits in 12 1/3 innings so far this season. Castro is 3 for 8 against Vargas career.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.314, 0.721 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312, 0.719 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.283, 0.715 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306, 0.713 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299, 0.712 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.287, 0.710 — Eddie Rosario batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.272, 0.709 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.293, 0.704 — Jose Martinez batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.286, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.275, 0.704 — Nolan Arenado batting against Walker Buehler.
0.278, 0.702 — Jose Abreu batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.277, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against Hector Santiago.
0.281, 0.697 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.281, 0.697 — Whit Merrifield batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.276, 0.697 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.285, 0.694 — Justin Turner batting against German Marquez.
0.279, 0.692 — Jon Jay batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281, 0.692 — Michael Moustakas batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.251, 0.685 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jose Berrios.
0.253, 0.684 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Walker Buehler.
0.274, 0.684 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.257, 0.682 — Gerardo Parra batting against Walker Buehler.
0.278, 0.681 — Thomas Pham batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.284, 0.679 — Miguel Rojas batting against Jason Vargas.
0.265, 0.676 — Miguel Andujar batting against Bartolo Colon.

Both system agree on the 1-2 hitters today, Castro and Kemp.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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