Jim Albert at Exploring Baseball Data with R quantifies the drop in home runs this season. Using models based on the 2016 and 2017 season, there are many fewer home runs than expected based on launch angle and exit velocity of batted balls.
Note that the 2018 estimated probabilities are significantly lower than the 2017 values, even when you adjust for the early part of the season. In other words, the balls with a particular launch angle and launch speed are experiencing more drag in 2018, at least relative to 2017.
So it appears the drag problem with the ball was fixed.
Albert participated in the MLB sponsored study of baseballs. One of the recommendations of the study is this:
MLB should monitor and attempt to standardize the application of mud on the baseballs, since the surface texture of the baseballs affects drag.
The application of mud used to be the job of the umpires, but it has gone to clubhouse personnel over time. It’s labor intensive, as someone has to actually rub the mud on the balls. I suspect there should be a machine for this, some kind of tumbler like they use to coat candy. It might produce a more consistent ball.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2IS5VXh
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