Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Nick Castellanos batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.315 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ty Blach.
0.315 — J.D. Martinez batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.312 — Manny Machado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.311 — Adrian Beltre batting against Mike Leake.
0.303 — Mookie Betts batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.301 — John Hicks batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.295 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.295 — Nomar Mazara batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Matt Kemp batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.293 — Kevin Pillar batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.290 — Matt M Duffy batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.289 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.289 — James McCann batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.288 — Jose Iglesias batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.288 — Jose Peraza batting against Ty Blach.
0.288 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.286 — Grayson J Greiner batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.285 — Trey Mancini batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.284 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Minor.
0.284 — Adam Jones batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.283 — Niko Goodrum batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.283 — Peter Kozma batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.281 — Matt Boyd batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.281 — Victor Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.281 — Warwick Saupold batting against Josh Tomlin.

Tomlin puts the ball over the plate, and so far this season batters have connected well, batting .339 against him with just six walks. Castellanos was hit on the hand with a pitch a couple of days ago, and did not play Monday night. Adrian Beltre is also injured but not on the disabled list.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.339, 0.739 — Nick Castellanos batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.315, 0.739 — J.D. Martinez batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.315, 0.730 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ty Blach.
0.279, 0.727 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.288, 0.722 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Minor.
0.311, 0.722 — Adrian Beltre batting against Mike Leake.
0.312, 0.722 — Manny Machado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295, 0.720 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.303, 0.719 — Mookie Betts batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.284, 0.718 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Minor.
0.287, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.280, 0.711 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.277, 0.709 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.294, 0.707 — Matt Kemp batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.289, 0.705 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.290, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.285, 0.699 — Trey Mancini batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.272, 0.698 — Buster Posey batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.270, 0.696 — Howie Kendrick batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.293, 0.696 — Kevin Pillar batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.249, 0.696 — Michael Brantley batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.288, 0.695 — Jose Peraza batting against Ty Blach.
0.271, 0.695 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.272, 0.695 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.272, 0.694 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.284, 0.694 — Adam Jones batting against Nick Pivetta.

Castellanos is the consensus first choice, with J.D. Martinez and Scooter Gennett tied for second. Given Castellanos’s injury, I might double down on Martinez and Gennett.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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