Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.331 — Matt Kemp batting against Clayton Richard.
0.303 — Nolan Arenado batting against Sal Romano.
0.302 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Fiers.
0.300 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.290 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sal Romano.
0.288 — Odubel Herrera batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.286 — Joey Votto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Jose Peraza batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.282 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sal Romano.
0.282 — Wilson Ramos batting against David Hess.
0.281 — Matt M Duffy batting against David Hess.
0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.280 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279 — Christian Yelich batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.278 — Mookie Betts batting against Julio Teheran.
0.278 — Tucker Barnhart batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.278 — Jon Jay batting against Mike Minor.
0.278 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.275 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard.
0.275 — Albert Almora batting against Derek Holland.
0.275 — J.D. Martinez batting against Julio Teheran.
0.275 — Corey Dickerson batting against John Gant.
0.275 — Welington Castillo batting against Michael Fiers.
0.275 — Jonathan Villar batting against Noah Syndergaard.

scooter Gennett is doing well lately. He’s fairly high hit, low walk player, so he’s a good candidate for extending a hit streak (although he did not do so yesterday).

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.338, 0.744 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.331, 0.736 — Matt Kemp batting against Clayton Richard.
0.303, 0.722 — Nolan Arenado batting against Sal Romano.
0.302, 0.721 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Fiers.
0.273, 0.721 — Jean Segura batting against Fernando Romero.
0.280, 0.718 — Michael Brantley batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.288, 0.717 — Odubel Herrera batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.275, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Julio Teheran.
0.278, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Julio Teheran.
0.247, 0.708 — Jose Altuve batting against Corey Kluber.
0.290, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sal Romano.
0.285, 0.707 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.282, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sal Romano.
0.300, 0.706 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.275, 0.705 — Albert Almora batting against Derek Holland.
0.282, 0.700 — Wilson Ramos batting against David Hess.
0.275, 0.699 — Corey Dickerson batting against John Gant.
0.257, 0.698 — Dee Gordon batting against Fernando Romero.
0.274, 0.697 — Nick Markakis batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.265, 0.695 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.259, 0.694 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.281, 0.693 — Matt M Duffy batting against David Hess.
0.278, 0.691 — Jon Jay batting against Mike Minor.
0.246, 0.690 — Nick Castellanos batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.280, 0.689 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.261, 0.687 — Freddie Freeman batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.267, 0.687 — Manny Machado batting against Sergio Romo.

The systems are in perfect agreement today with Gennett and Kemp at the top of the list. Both are hitting well this year, hitting decently over a three-year span, and facing a pitcher with a history of giving up hits. Clayton Richard found a new arm slot recently, and is pitching better, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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