Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.295 — Nolan Arenado batting against Frankie Montas.
0.294 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Eflin.
0.292 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.291 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.289 — Gerardo Parra batting against Frankie Montas.
0.288 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.288 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.288 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.287 — Nick Markakis batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.286 — Jean Segura batting against Felix Pena.
0.285 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284 — Starling Marte batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.283 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ross Stripling.
0.283 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jose Urena.
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.281 — Leury Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.277 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Eflin.
0.277 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nathan Eovaldi.

Brantley is three for eight career against Zimmermann. Jose Ramirez is 5 for 10.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.733 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304, 0.728 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.286, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Felix Pena.
0.296, 0.724 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Frankie Montas.
0.294, 0.723 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Eflin.
0.288, 0.720 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Urena.
0.295, 0.717 — Nolan Arenado batting against Frankie Montas.
0.300, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.714 — Avisail Garcia batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.291, 0.714 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.292, 0.711 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.289, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Frankie Montas.
0.281, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.290, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.284, 0.705 — Starling Marte batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.270, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Felix Pena.
0.256, 0.703 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios.
0.275, 0.703 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Minor.
0.286, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.702 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.287, 0.700 — Nick Markakis batting against Ross Stripling.
0.283, 0.700 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286, 0.700 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.700 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Eflin.

Jose Altuve had the highest probability, but he was placed on the 10-day disabled list overnight. So Brantley is the unanimous first choice, with Dickerson the unanimous second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich moves up another spot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Mike Trout stays on top as he homered in the Angels 11-5 win over Seattle. Alex Bregmen holds second place with a home run and a walk as the Astros fall to Texas 7-3. Yelich went two for five with a home run to move past Matt Carpenter. Jose Ramirez is now fifth, just 0.14 points ahead of Mookie Betts.

Yelich is on quite hot, owning the second longest hit at the moment, 12 games. In that time, he posted a .520/.547/.980 slash line with four home runs and 15 RBI.

As the season progresses, we see how these ratings work. Hitters like Trout and Ramirez, who are consistently good, pretty much stay in the top five. Players who go on incredible streaks, like Yelich and Carpenter, can work their way into the higher echelons if they also have a good base to build on.

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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Twins, Miles

My thoughts go out to Miles Mikolas, whose new born twins are in the neonatal intensive care unit:

Miles Mikolas, on pitching while his twins are in the NICU:

"One of the ways that helps me look at this is I’m out here playing baseball to
support my family. So if I try to look at it that way, it’s a little easier
pill to swallow." https://t.co/xYHn6AVv6h

— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) July 28, 2018

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Games of the Day

I will defer to the Brad Keller against Luis Severino comment from yesterday.

The Cubs send Jose Quintana against the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas. Quintana found his groove in July, posting a 1.89 ERA in July despite nine walks in 19 innings. Batters only accumulated 14 hits against him. Mikolas is the feel good story of the season, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA at 2.82 after not having pitched in the majors since 2014.

Alex Wood takes the hill for the Dodgers against the Braves and Max Fried. Wood owns a 1-3 record in four starts against his former team with a 6.05 ERA. Fried burns batters, with 25 K in 20 2/3 innings.

Finally, the Brewers try to continue their domination of the Giants as Jhoulys Chacín takes on Johnny Cueto. Chacin stands 3-0 in July with just four walks allowed in 23 2/3 innings. Cueto owns a 4.50 ERA at home this season where he allowed five home runs in 22 innings.

Enjoy!

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Moustakas to the Brewers

The Royals traded Mike Moustakas to the Brewers in the middle of the night:

To what degree this deal might make Moustakas again some kind of factor in a Royals restoration remains to be seen, of course, in whatever those acquired for him — outfielder Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez — come to mean to the franchise.

But that won’t be known for some time: Each has spent most of this season with Class AAA Colorado Springs; Phillips will report to the Royals as soon as possible and Lopez is headed to Class AAA Omaha.

Moustakas was one of the players nobody wanted last winter, and the Royals signed him to $11 million less than the qualifying deal they originally offered. His offense got worse but his defense improved, and now they flipped that low investment into two players. Phillips owns an amazing minor league BABIP, but strikes out so often his batting average is low. Lopez does a good job of keeping the ball in the park, but I doubt either of them will be stars. It’s not really the start of a rebuild for the Royals, it’s more an acquisition of MLB ready players.

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Two Momentous Events

Chipper Jones may miss his Hall of Fame Induction ceremony for another major event:

After his election into the Hall in January, he announced that he had another child on the way. A boy, his sixth.

He and wife, Taylor, picked Cooper as the child’s name. Cooper’s expected due date is the day after the induction ceremony.

…

The couple have a contingency plan in place should Taylor go into labor ahead of the ceremony. They have visited the local hospital in Cooperstown, just in case, and his speech will be pre-recorded.

If the baby comes tonight, Chipper can hold it while he gives his speech tomorrow!

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