Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Games of the Day

Charlie Morton goes for his eighth win without a loss as the Astros face CC Sabathia and the Yankees. Since joining the Astros in 2017, batters find Morton tough to hit. His .214 BA allowed ranks ninth lowest in the majors in that time frame. After allowing a 1.69 ERA in April, Sabathia gave up a 6.05 ERA so far in May. Despite a higher K rate in the month, Sabathia gave up more hits.

The Cubs try to push the Pirates further down in the NL Central as Jon Lester takes on rookie Nick Kingham. Lester owns an outstanding 2.37 ERA this season, but gave up four runs in five innings against the Pirates earlier this year. In his first 18 1/3 innings, Kinghmam walked just two batters while striking out 21.

Finally, Jake Arrieta leads the Phillies against the Dodgers and Kenta Maeda. Arrieta allowed just one home run at home and one on the road, but 29 K at home and just six on the road. The low K rate leads to a 5.12 ERA away. Maeda owns a 2.88 ERA at home this year versus 3.86 on the road. He’s allowed fewer hits and walks away in the same amount of innings, so the difference looks like good luck in Los Angeles.

Enjoy!



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zachary Godley.
0.315 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.315 — Jean Segura batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.308 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.303 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.302 — Wilson Ramos batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.300 — Jose Altuve batting against CC Sabathia.
0.299 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.295 — Nick Markakis batting against Steven Matz.
0.292 — Jose Martinez batting against Zach Davies.
0.290 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Steven Matz.
0.290 — Odubel Herrera batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.279 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.279 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.278 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies.
0.276 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.276 — Mallex Smith batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.276 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.276 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.274 — Nick Castellanos batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.272 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Kingham.
0.270 — Manny Machado batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.270 — Mitch Moreland batting against Marco Estrada.
0.269 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Marco Estrada.
0.269 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.

Gennett had another big day on Monday in a Cincinnati loss, going 3 for 5. Both Betts and Segura and injured but not on the disabled list, so watch to see if they are playing. Betts has left-side tightness, Segura a concussion.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.300, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against CC Sabathia.
0.315, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.321, 0.743 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zachary Godley.
0.315, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.308, 0.725 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.302, 0.724 — Wilson Ramos batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.299, 0.721 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.303, 0.720 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.268, 0.715 — Michael Brantley batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.295, 0.714 — Nick Markakis batting against Steven Matz.
0.290, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting against Steven Matz.
0.292, 0.713 — Jose Martinez batting against Zach Davies.
0.290, 0.711 — Odubel Herrera batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.272, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Kingham.
0.279, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.279, 0.708 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.274, 0.705 — Nick Castellanos batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.269, 0.705 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.276, 0.704 — Matt Kemp batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.290, 0.703 — Matt M Duffy batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.266, 0.700 — Jon Jay batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.266, 0.698 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.278, 0.697 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies.
0.268, 0.697 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.276, 0.694 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marco Estrada.

Altuve is two for six career against Sabathia in the regular season, two for nine if you include the post-season. Gennett is the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Best Batter Today

Mike Trout hit his 18th home run of the season Monday to remain in top spot of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Jose Altuve‘s time in the top five was short, as a 3 for 4 day by Francisco Lindor moves him back into the top five. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Lindor, and J.D. Martinez are two through five.



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Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Monday, May 28, 2018

Rookie Pause

Ronald Acuna goes on the disabled list:

Results from Ronald Acuña Jr.’s MRI on Monday showed a left knee mild ACL sprain and a left knee contusion as well as a lower back contusion. He will be placed on the 10-day disabled list and be re-evaluated.

Acuna injured his left knee as he completed his sprint to record an infield single during the seventh inning on Sunday. After crossing the bag, his left leg buckled in a gruesome manner and he immediately fell to the ground, where he remained while being attended to by members of the Braves’ medical staff.

Here’s hoping he recovers quickly.



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Analyzing the Home Run Drop

Jim Albert at Exploring Baseball Data with R quantifies the drop in home runs this season. Using models based on the 2016 and 2017 season, there are many fewer home runs than expected based on launch angle and exit velocity of batted balls.

Note that the 2018 estimated probabilities are significantly lower than the 2017 values, even when you adjust for the early part of the season. In other words, the balls with a particular launch angle and launch speed are experiencing more drag in 2018, at least relative to 2017.

So it appears the drag problem with the ball was fixed.

Albert participated in the MLB sponsored study of baseballs. One of the recommendations of the study is this:

MLB should monitor and attempt to standardize the application of mud on the baseballs, since the surface texture of the baseballs affects drag.

The application of mud used to be the job of the umpires, but it has gone to clubhouse personnel over time. It’s labor intensive, as someone has to actually rub the mud on the balls. I suspect there should be a machine for this, some kind of tumbler like they use to coat candy. It might produce a more consistent ball.



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Thoughts On Agility

Agile is one of the “hot” business buzzwords these days, right along with digital, transformation, and disruptive.  (You get double buzzword bingo points if you can use, “disruptive, agile, digital business transformation” in a single sentence on a PowerPoint slide.)

But much of what I see under the “agile” banner is far from agile.

The concept of agility focuses on improving individual and organizational ability to respond to quickly changing business conditions.  Whether they are market shifts, competitive disruption, dealing with overwhelm and complexity (Internal, customer, market), being “agile” helps us both recognize these and take action to respond.  Alternatively, some approaches to agile would claim to drive those shifts/disruptions.

Velocity is an important concept in being agile.  It is the ability to recognize problems, challenges, understand and respond to them quickly.  But too often, we confuse speed and velocity.  Velocity measures the same thing as speed but has a directional component.  Executing with speed, being busy, being active without a direction is meaningless, wasted action.  It achieves nothing, in fact, it can take us further from our goals than doing nothing.

Yet, this is what we see, organizations executing lots of things, people who are crazy busy, but without direction or purpose.  This isn’t agile, it’s quite the opposite.

Empowerment and trust are key to being agile.  In order to respond to changes, quickly, we need to get people as close to the work/action as possible to recognize the need to change, and we must trust they will do the right thing in driving change activities.

Yet, “I have to check with my manager….” is the norm.  Or subtle “command and control” structures dominate.  No one likes that term, but it’s manifested in too often, in different ways:  “Do things this way, don’t change,”  “This is our process, you have to follow it,”  “Here is the script, make sure you stick to it,” “Check with me before you make a commitment,”  or “We need to go get approval for that….”

If everything has to funnel back to management, they become the bottleneck and the weak link in being agile.  There is no way management can possibly identify and respond to all that needs to be achieved in the agile organization.  There is no way that managers have the depth of knowledge/understanding on everything to be able to respond in meaningful ways.

Collaboration, fluidity are key concepts in being agile.  We “swarm” problems, we have “stand-ups,”  we keep everyone who needs to be involved and informed, aligning priorities and developing action plans to address.

Yet, too often, we see our organizations dominated by silos and departments.  These organizations are optimized around achieving individual, departmental, and functional goals–which may not be aligned with the expected end results.

Agility requires structure and process.  We cannot be agile in the absence of these. Structure/process provide context in which to understand which actions are most important and how to drive change.  At the same time, agility recognizes the need to continuously improve and adapt.

Without structure and process, chaos reigns, and agility is meaningless in a chaotic environment.

Agility requires purposefulness and direction.  Without these, we don’t know what we are trying to achieve.  At the same time, agility recognizes we have to adapt and change as the world around us changes.

Many think they are being agile by constantly shifting priorities, by adopting a “program du jour” mentality, changing aimlessly.

Agility requires alignment, across the organization.  If the entire organization isn’t aligned in goals, values, culture, priorities, it’s impossible to be agile.

It requires accountability, without accountability, it’s impossible to take meaningful action.

Agility only exists in an environment of constant learning and improvement.

Agility is about people–hiring the best, expecting the best, giving them the freedom to be the best and supporting them to achieve

There’s a lot more to being agile.  We aren’t agile just because we say we are.  We aren’t agile because we constantly shift goals, priorities, people.  We aren’t agile because we worship speed and quick changes.

There is a lot to being agile, unfortunately, too few understand and execute the things required to be truly agile.

 



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