Team Offense, Los Angeles Dodgers

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished fifth in the majors and first in the National League in 2018 with 4.93 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Dave Roberts order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Dodgers actual numbers from 2018. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.13
• Probable lineup: 4.91
• Worst lineup: 4.53
• Regressed lineup: 4.54

The Dodgers clearly believe in the strength of on-base percentage, as all eight of the position players do a good to excellent job of avoiding outs. In addition, five of the batters project to very good power, so they’ll produce the extra base hits to move all those runners closer to the plate. Note that the best Dodgers order produces the same runs per game as the best Oakland order, but the Dodgers does it with a pitcher batting.

The LAT agrees with the Dodgers lineup at two important slots, four and seven. Four is where the LAT tends to put a good power hitter who also gets on base. He can clean up the runners in front of him, or he can start a new offensive sequence. The seven hitter in the LAT is the one who finishes the offensive sequence, so power in important here. Pederson has that power.

I very much line Russell Martin batting ninth, as he will get on base for the top of the order, and as an older catcher, it will give him fewer plate appearances during the season. In general, if an NL team is going to bat a catcher eighth, they may as well give him a little extra rest by batting him ninth. They’ll also give the top of the order more RBI opportunity.

The Dodgers remade their lineup a little bit, and they appear to be at the level of last year. That was good enough, with their pitching, to get them to the World Series.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Cleveland Indians
• Oakland Athletics

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Team Offense, Oakland Athletics

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics finished fourth in the majors in 2018 with 5.02 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Bob Melvin order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.13
• Probable lineup: 5.03
• Worst lineup: 4.85
• Regressed lineup: 4.62

With a spread of just 0.28 runs, Oakland has the most flexible lineup analyzed so far. The LAT puts Khris Davis in the fourth slot, and that is where he is slated to bat. The LAT shows Stephen Piscotty and Marcus Semien in the six-seven slots, and that’s where they are intended to bat. Everyone else can be spread around the lineup making little difference.

Ramon Laureano is a player to watch, as he has not yet reached his prime. If he lives up to his projections, he should move to the top of the Athletics order. If you scroll down to the 11th best order, it has Nick Martini first, Laureano third, and Jurickson Profar ninth. That would be a very good arrangement for this group of players.

Oakland appears to have preserved their offense with some upside. They will score enough runs to win, now they need to keep their pitchers healthy.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Cleveland Indians

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Team Offense, Cleveland Indians

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Indians. The Indians finished third in the majors in 2018 with 5.05 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Terry Francona order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.93
• Probable lineup: 4.81
• Worst lineup: 4.61
• Regressed lineup: 4.48

The LAT flips Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana. The LAT bats them four and one instead of one and four. Santana has often been used as a lead-off hitter, so don’t be surprised to see him in that role this season.

Francona should consider batting Roberto Perez eighth. He projects to be the worst hitter by far. Lindor has some pop, however, so having someone with a better chance of getting on base at the end of the order should take more advantage of that pop.

This is a team that could have greatly benefited from signing Bryce Harper. They have no strong hitters in the outfield, and a top four that included both Jose Ramirez and Harper would be formidable. Given their long World Series drought, Harper would have made a lot of sense. Right now, it looks like Cleveland will have a tough time repeating their 2018 offensive level.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees

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Team Offense, New York Yankees

The 2019 series on team offense begins with the New York Yankees. The Yankees finished seond in the majors in 2018 with 5.25 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brett Boone order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.74
• Probable lineup: 5.58
• Worst lineup: 5.43
• Regressed lineup: 4.85

While it is difficult to create a bad lineup out of this group of Yankees, the order at RotoChamp comes close. This line is actually closer to the worst than the best order.

The traditional lineup is designed to maximize scoring in the first inning. Two table setters are followed by two power hitters, with the best bat in the order usually batting third. The regressions that built the LAT recognize that the best batters should bat high in the order, and that the eighth and third slots are where to hide the weak bats. The player who might serve as the number two hitter in the traditional lineup would bat ninth, serving as a second lead-off hitter when the lineup turns over.

This Yankees order is a poor mix of the two. Aaron Judge bats second, which is great, but Giancarlo Stanton is third and Aaron Hicks is fourth. The order would get a nice boost from flipping them, from 5.58 RPG to 5.63 RPG. The LAT sees Gardner and Hicks as the weakest hitters on the team, and bats Gardner eighth. If the Yankees don’t want to bat Judge first, D.J. LeMahieu would be my choice of lead-off hitter.

Of course, this is an argument about 1/10s of runs. This is a great lineup with upside. The Marcels regress but Miguel Anduar and Gleyber Torres toward the league mean, as both basically have a year of playing time under their belts. Even with the regression they are slated to put up very good numbers. The Marcels see a much better year for Gary Sanchez, and continued greatness for Judge and Stanton. Even a regressed Luke Voit is expected to do well. If something doesn’t work out, the Yankees have the money to go after a suitable replacement. It should be a fun offensive season in the Bronx.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
• Boston Red Sox

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More Incentives

Once again, a player talks about incentives for teams to win. This time, East Longmeadow’s Nick Ahmed takes up the idea:

“I think everybody wants the best players on the field,” said Ahmed, the Diamondbacks’ union rep. “They want to see everybody competing. Whether that’s young players who are being held back (for service-time reasons) or veteran players who are being pushed out for some arbitrary reason like their age or some random stat that they’re finding that he may have decreased in. But there’s still a ton of value to bringing a veteran guy into a clubhouse to help a team win.”

Ahmed said he’d like to see something done to incentivize teams to try to win.

AZCentral.com

Give rewards rather than extract penalties. I believe this would work for speeding up the game as well. Pay players to play faster.

Of course, getting rid of all the rules (no draft, no international restrictions, everyone a free agent when a contract expires) would also accomplish this. It is much tougher to game a simple system. Scotty summed it up well.

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The Harper

Team Offense, Boston Red Sox

The 2018 series on team offense begins with the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox finished first in the majors in 2018 with 5.41 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Alex Cora order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.51
• Probable lineup: 5.39
• Worst lineup: 5.10
• Regressed lineup: 4.85

The Red Sox put together an excellent default lineup. When I typed it into the LAT, I assumed someone would be inserted between Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. I thought it might be Mitch Moreland, but Jackie Bradley works just as well (lineup 14 matches my expectation). I also suspect that Bradley batting in the ninth slot instead of Pedroia has to do with the uncertainty of Pedoria’s health. If he was really going to post a .353 OBP, bottom of the order secondary-leadoff hitter would be the right role.

It is a scary lineup, given that five of the good hitters in the order are in their primes or younger. Martinez’s Marcels prediction is a drop from last year, but even at those levels he might win an MVP. It’s a deep lineup that gets on base and hits for power, and Cora does a good job of arranging the players. Once again, Boston should be fun to watch.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)

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