The 2019 series on team offense begins with the New York Yankees. The Yankees finished seond in the majors in 2018 with 5.25 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brett Boone order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.74
- Probable lineup: 5.58
- Worst lineup: 5.43
- Regressed lineup: 4.85
While it is difficult to create a bad lineup out of this group of Yankees, the order at RotoChamp comes close. This line is actually closer to the worst than the best order.
The traditional lineup is designed to maximize scoring in the first inning. Two table setters are followed by two power hitters, with the best bat in the order usually batting third. The regressions that built the LAT recognize that the best batters should bat high in the order, and that the eighth and third slots are where to hide the weak bats. The player who might serve as the number two hitter in the traditional lineup would bat ninth, serving as a second lead-off hitter when the lineup turns over.
This Yankees order is a poor mix of the two. Aaron Judge bats second, which is great, but Giancarlo Stanton is third and Aaron Hicks is fourth. The order would get a nice boost from flipping them, from 5.58 RPG to 5.63 RPG. The LAT sees Gardner and Hicks as the weakest hitters on the team, and bats Gardner eighth. If the Yankees don’t want to bat Judge first, D.J. LeMahieu would be my choice of lead-off hitter.
Of course, this is an argument about 1/10s of runs. This is a great lineup with upside. The Marcels regress but Miguel Anduar and Gleyber Torres toward the league mean, as both basically have a year of playing time under their belts. Even with the regression they are slated to put up very good numbers. The Marcels see a much better year for Gary Sanchez, and continued greatness for Judge and Stanton. Even a regressed Luke Voit is expected to do well. If something doesn’t work out, the Yankees have the money to go after a suitable replacement. It should be a fun offensive season in the Bronx.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
- Boston Red Sox
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