Sunday, March 17, 2019

Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished twenty seventh in the majors and last in the American League in 2018 with 3.84 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brandon Hyde order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.58
  • Probable lineup: 4.54
  • Worst lineup: 4.38
  • Regressed lineup: 4.31

This is a better offensive team than I thought I would see. Seven of the players sport decent OBPs, although the team lacks power. The LAT agrees with the default lineup at the two slot with D.J. Stewart, the clean-up slot with Trey Mancini, and the ninth slot with Richie Martin.

The players who project to the lowest OBPs are veteran sluggers Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. Neither projects to a high slugging percentage, but both project to a high isolated power. In other words, they don’t get hits two often, but when they do, there’s a good chance it will be for extra bases.

The LAT also shows how far Chris Davis has fallen. The calculation bats Davis eighth, which is the slot for the weakest hitter on the team. The Orioles are batting him sixth, mostly I suspect for his isolated power, but I would not be surprised to see this new regime, that has nothing personally invested in his contract, let him go at some point for a better designated hitter.

Orioles fans should be cautiously optimistic about this lineup.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

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