Team Offense, New York Mets

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. The Mets finished twenty second in the majors and twelfth in the Naitonal League in 2018 with 4.17 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Mickey Callaway order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the actual results for the Mets from 2018. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.01
• Probable lineup: 4.99
• Worst lineup: 4.81
• Regressed lineup: 4.59

Callaway’s order does a good job of getting the grouping right, even if the LAT does not agree 100% with the order. Two match on Brandon Nimmo leading off, Dominic Smith batting sixth, and Amed Rosario batting seventh. But the one through five and six through nine splits use the same players.

On one hand, that’s easy to do. The Mets put five very good hitters in the lineup, and four that project poorly, including the pitcher’s slot. That’s alright. There are teams that scored a lot of runs by bunching very good hitters together.

Smith has upside due to his age, and did a good job in the minors of getting on base. I’m less optimistic about Rosario, who is very young. He never put up good offensive numbers in the minors, but the Mets may just want him to eat up all the balls that come his way. Mostly, it’s nice to see the Mets trying to get a bit younger.

The offense, with the pitching staff, may be enough to win. I can see why they want Rosario’s glove. The Mets staff should have a very high strikeout rate, and turning the remaining balls in play into outs will drive down opposition runs even more. The offense is probably just good enough.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Cleveland Indians
• Oakland Athletics
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Houston Astros
• Colorado Rockies
• Washington Nationals
• Atlanta Braves
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Chicago Cubs
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Minnesota Twins
• Texas Rangers
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Cincinnati Reds
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Seattle Mariners

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2HwP8XX