The division previews begin with the AL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2018, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2018. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Houston Astros
- Position Player WAR: 27.2
- Pitcher Total: 17.1
- Core Total: 44.3
The Astros do not look as super as they did going into 2018, but their 44.3 core total is the best in the division. The boast four players with 2018 WARs over five, and added Michael Brantley coming off a 3.6 WAR season. There’s even upside here as Carlos Correa had an off year in 2018.
The team is quite balanced. Most of the supporting players sport WARs about two. If they lose a star, as they did last season with Correa, they have plenty of depth among the starting nine to still win the division.
This is a good team built for the long haul. I like how they pull in good veterans like Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and now Michael Brantley to fill in holes. The Astros are a well run, well built team.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Position Player WAR: 23.4
- Pitcher Total: 7.6
- Core Total: 31.0
The Angels now have Mike Trout for the rest of his career, and need to put a team around him that can win. When one player puts up enough wins to get a team a quarter of the way to a playoff berth, there’s no reason for that team not to make the playoffs every year.
The Angels tried to do that with veterans in 2018, and Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart were not the answer. So this season they bring in Justin Bour and Jonathan Lucroy, not exactly spring chickens. I would think the Angels would be better off putting a bunch of 23-year-olds around Trout, and let them mature together. If Shohei Ohtani winds up being able to DH most of the season, that should improve things a bit. He and David Fletcher constitute a youth movement in Anaheim.
All that said, the offense if good enough to win. The Angels need to keep their pitchers healthy, something that proved difficult in recent seasons. They are also hoping for a come back from Matt Harvey, making the third year in a row a team is hoping for that. If the Angels can squeeze another 10 WAR out of their pitchers, they will be in playoff contention.
Seattle Mariners
- Position Player WAR: 15.5
- Pitcher Total: 5.9
- Core Total: 21.4
The Mariners own the lowest core pitcher total in the division. That could turn around with a positive season from former Ace Felix Hernandez and new closer Hunter Strickland. They are also hoping for help from Yusi Kikuchi, the lastest Japanese arrival in Seattle. He allowed few hits pitching in Japan despite just okay strikeout numbers.
On offense, it’s tough to see upside in the lineup. Domingo Santana will add power, but even the young veterans have no dazzled in their careers. I did like the projection of the Mariners run scoring, so maybe what we are seeing in the WAR is a bunch of down years poised for a comeback.
The Mariners have the lowest WAR up the middle of any team in the division. It’s tough to win if a team is not strong up the middle, so I doubt this will be Seattle’s season.
Texas Rangers
- Position Player WAR: 11.4
- Pitcher Total: 7.5
- Core Total: 18.9
I don’t believe that tanking is as widespread as some would imagine, but the Rangers really look like they are not trying to win. The have the lowest core WAR total in the division, and are last in both position and pitcher WAR. My dad would say their rotation is made up of has beens. They own a good closer, but I doubt he’ll get much work unless he opens.
On top of that, they replace one of the greatest third basemen ever, Adrian Beltre, with Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera posted a negative WAR in 2018. Why not just bring up a rookie and let him play? Give the fans a glimpse of the future at the hot corner, rather that filling the hole with another fading veteran.
The biggest thing to watch here is Joey Gallo, and will the Rangers play him enough to set a strikeout record?
Oakland Athletics
- Position Player WAR: 28.4
- Pitcher Total: 10.2
- Core Total: 38.6
Oakland looked terrible in this analysis last season, but their offense came together as youngsters matured into peak age players. That core owns the highest position player WAR in the division, and they will get a full year out of Ramon Laureano.
This team should give the Angels some hope, as the Oakland pitching staff suffered a ton of injuries in 2018 and pulled through. If they keep their staff healthy, they could easily add another five wins to their total and keep place with the Astros.
Summary
The Astros, once again, are the team to beat. I like the Athletics for a wild card spot, with the Mariners being the potential surprise of the division. We’ll also get to see if Mike Trout can set a single season record for WAR. He was on pace last season before injuries sidelined him.
Probability of winning the division
- Houston Astros 52%
- Oakland Athletics 20%
- Seattle Mariners 13%
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 10%
- Texas Rangers 5%
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