The division previews finish with the NL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2018, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2018. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Position Player WAR: 22.6
- Pitcher Total: 12.5
- Core Total: 35.1
The Dodgers no longer look like a super team. Their 35.1 core WAR seems low to me, and indeed the team has some upside. Corey Seager, if healthy, is much better than a 0.4 WAR player. Clayton Kershaw, if healthy could double his 3.3 WAR from 2018. Kenley Jansen, if healthy could post two WAR from the closer role.
The Dodgers have enough depth that they could withstand those players not coming back 100%. They showed that last season as injuries cut down the contributions of all three players, and yet Los Angeles won the division. There are no poor players in the core, no one filling in a spot with a zero WAR. The Dodgers should be the favorite to repeat, and they are likely a bigger favorite than their core total indicates.
Colorado Rockies
- Position Player WAR: 10.7
- Pitcher Total: 19.2
- Core Total: 31.0
I don’t think I ever thought I would write this next statement. The Rockies have the highest WAR for the pitching core in the division. Kyle Freeland is a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate. German Marquez and Tyler Anderson give the Rockies a formidable 2-3 punch. It’s nice to see the Rockies figured out who can do well at Coors.
The position players have some upside. Daniel Murphy was a negative WAR player in 2018 due to his defense. At first base, his bat should dominate, and he is the type of gap hitter who should do well at Coors. If he could run, he might lead the league in triples. Charlie Blackmon also had a big WAR drop-off due to his defense. Offensively, this team should be very good, especially with strong hitting at third base and shortstop.
The Dodgers and Rockies went down to the wire in 2018, and we should see something similar in 2019.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Position Player WAR: 12.4
- Pitcher Total: 5.2
- Core Total: 17.6
The Diamondbacks are retooling after a disappointing third place finish in 2018. Paul Goldschmidt and Patrick Corbin are gone, and the team did little to replace their ten WAR. Nick Ahmed, David Peralta, Ketel Marte, and Zack Greinke give this team a solid core, but right now the Diamondbacks are working on surrounding them with a better supporting cast. It’s hard to see a lot of upside with this team.
San Francisco Giants
- Position Player WAR: 12.1
- Pitcher Total: 6.8
- Core Total: 18.9
The Giants are a team without a current star. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Madison Bumgarner all seem to have left their star power in their past. They are all solid two to three WAR players, but there is no high WAR player to build around right now. Maybe they all bounce back for one more big season. Maybe the few younger players on the team blossom. My guess is the fans enjoy their former stars as the team continues to decline.
San Diego Padres
- Position Player WAR: 17.8
- Pitcher Total: 5.5
- Core Total: 23.3
The Padres made the biggest splash in the division when they signed Manny Machado. With his offense and defense, the Padres now have the second highest position player core WAR in the division.
What should be equally as exciting is the Padres promoting Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Chris Paddack to the majors. Tatis takes over at shortstop. He hit .282/.346/.483 at AA as an 18 and 19 year old. The Padres are not trying to manipulate his service time either, which indicates they are serious about winning.
Paddack plays 2019 as a 23-year old. He strikes out tons of batters and walks no one. In 177 2/3 minor league innings, he walks 20 batters and struck out 230. If his MLB rates are nine K per 9 IP and two walks per 9 IP, he’ll be very good.
I rated them both at two WAR for the upcoming season, but both could wind up much higher than that. More importantly, because Machado is still young, this gives the Padres an outstanding core to build around for the next five seasons.
Summary
I expect a tight race between the Dodgers and the Rockies, with the Padres moving up in the division. If their rookies pan out, the Padres should push past the .500 mark, but I think they are still a year or two away from contending for the playoffs.
One feature of this division is the great left-side of the infields. The Dodgers, Padres, and Rockies all have stars at third and short, and it will be fun comparing them as the season progresses.
Probability of winning the division
- Los Angeles Dodgers 40%
- Colorado Rockies 35%
- San Diego Padres 15%
- San Francisco Giants 6%
- Arizona Diamondbacks 4%
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