The division previews continue with the NL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2018, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2018. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Position Player WAR: 26.7
- Pitcher Total: 5.3
- Core Total: 32.0
The Brewers are a team built to score runs. They own the highest core position player WAR in the division, but the lowest core pitcher WAR. While the pitcher WAR was lowered somewhat by injuries, one should not be surprised that the Brewers rate a bit behind in the division. The did exceed their Pythagorean projection by five games in 2018.
Of their two stars, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, expect a drop-off in Cain’s WAR. He is in his thirties, so a decline is going to happen at some point. Yelich plays as a 27-year-old this season, usually the peak of a player’s career.
The big addition was catcher Yasmani Grandal, who adds three WAR to an already strong offense. They stood pat on pitching, however, and that may cost them the division in 2019. They seem like at team that would benefit from signing Dallas Keuchel.
Chicago Cubs
- Position Player WAR: 21.8
- Pitcher Total: 14.8
- Core Total: 36.6
The Cubs carry the highest core pitcher WAR in the division into the season, and that is assigning a slightly negative WAR to Yu Darvish. Their rotation sends out five pitchers, any one of which might be an ace in another city. None of their WARs from last season is so high that I expect any great downside, and Darvish gives them plenty of upside.
The position players carry some upside as well. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are capable of better seasons than their 2018 campaigns, and there is still a lot of youth on the team. Javier Baez‘s break-out season means the Cubs won’t miss Addison Russell if he doesn’t return from his legal morass.
The Cubs are not projecting as a super team anymore, but their core war looks like a floor, not a ceiling.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Position Player WAR: 24.7
- Pitcher Total: 8.4
- Core Total: 33.1
The difference between the Cardinals and Brewers core position player WAR is the -1.4 WAR of Dexter Fowler. I was surprised to see him at the top of the depth charts. My guess is that Fowler will get a short window to succeed, and if he is in negative territory again, he’ll be benched. The Cardinals spent a lot of money on Paul Goldschmidt in an effort to win now. They are not going to let Fowler pull them down.
There is upside among the pitchers. If both Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha are capable of posting WARs over 1.0. Carlos Martinez is injured, but if he can comeback for any length of time it will improve the outlook of the pitching staff. Again, I see the core total here more of a floor than a ceiling.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Position Player WAR: 14.3
- Pitcher Total: 11.6
- Core Total: 25.9
The Pirates are an okay team with some upside. If they can get Chris Archer back to being dominant (and the Pirates are good at resurrecting pitchers), the top three pitchers on the staff look very good. Jung Ho Kang is a wild card, as his legal troubles caused him to miss all but three MLB games in the last two years. Maybe Lonnie Chisenhall gets back to being a one WAR player.
If the team can get five more WAR out of those three players, they are looking at finishing above .500. With a little luck, that can turn into a playoff spot. They have three tough teams in front of them, but good luck does happen in the game.
Cincinnati Reds
- Position Player WAR: 16.8
- Pitcher Total: 7.4
- Core Total: 24.2
The Scooter Gennett injury cost the Reds two WAR (compared to Jose Iglesias), so with Gennett they would be ahead of the Pirates. I like the way the Reds reworked the pitching staff. They are taking a flyer on Sonny Gray, which if they can straighten him out could add three or four wins to the team. Tanner Roark gives them a solid middle of the rotation starter. The team is heading in the right direction, although they are not quite ready to compete for the division title.
A bounce back year from Joey Votto would help make up for the Gennett loss. The Reds have a shot at getting out of last place.
Summary
It should be a good three-way race between the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers. My guess is that regression to the mean moves the Cubs to the top and Brewers to the bottom. The Cubs stood pat after what some thought was an unsuccessful season. We’ll see if that was the correct strategy.
No one in the division is tanking, and with some luck, either the Pirates or Reds might sneak into the wild card.
Probability of winning the division
- Chicago Cubs 31%
- St. Louis Cardinals 30%
- Milwaukee Brewers 29%
- Pittsburgh Pirates 6%
- Cincinnati Reds 4%
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