Team Offense Summary

The team offense series concludes with a look at what teams might do the best in 2019. The series is summarized in this spreadsheet.

The Yankees come out on top based on their default lineup projecting to 5.58 runs per game. They have some young players set to improve, and others who had off slightly off years. They are followed by the Astros and the Red Sox. Don’t be surprised that the Red Sox drop to third. There were career years on the team in 2018, and one should expect them to regress a bit.

The Rockies project to be the best offense in the NL at 4.97 runs per game, which should surprise no one. The Dodgers, however, who play in a less hitter friendly park, project to 4.91 runs per game. The Nationals lost Bryce Harper, but are still projected to finish third at 4.85 runs per game.

The biggest projected jump goes to the Mariners. Seattle finished 21st in the majors in runs per game in 2018, but the LAT shows them at sixth, indicating a nice, quick rebuild of the offense. They are built on the common conception of a Moneyball team, high OBPs.

The biggest falls belong to the Braves, who go from ninth to twentieth, while the the Indians fall from third to thirteenth. The Braves have a very large spread between their best and worst lineups, 0.74 runs per game. That is the largest in the study. A better batting order could raise their standing. The Orioles and Mariners tied for lowest spread, 0.20. They can pretty much trot out the batters in any order.

The Mariners, however, get the most out of their default lineup, 90% of the best order. They are starting to look like the team to watch this year, with good players and good management. The Yankees get the least out of their default lineup, just 48.8% of the optimum. We’ll see if that comes back to bite them as the season wears on.

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• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Cleveland Indians
• Oakland Athletics
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Houston Astros
• Colorado Rockies
• Washington Nationals
• Atlanta Braves
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Chicago Cubs
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Minnesota Twins
• Texas Rangers
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Cincinnati Reds
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Seattle Mariners
• New York Mets
• Chicago White Sox
• Kansas City Royals
• Detroit Tigers
• San Diego Padres
• San Francisco Giants
• Miami Marlins

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