Sunday, March 17, 2019

Team Offense, San Diego Padres

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished twenty eighth in the majors and thirteenth in the National League in 2018 with 3.81 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Andy Green order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the actual numbers from the 2018 Padres. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.37
  • Probable lineup: 4.15
  • Worst lineup: 3.77
  • Regressed lineup: 4.05

Manny Machado doesn’t appear to improve the Padres that much offensively. That lack of improvement is further reduced by a poorly constructed lineup. While I like Machado batting second, the team needs to put a player with a higher OBP than Ian Kinsler in front of the slugger. Maybe the Padres have reason to believe he’ll return to his high .330s OBPs, but at seasonal age 37, I would not bet on it. I suspect he’s a place holder until one of their many young second basemen is ready for the majors.

Machado is a long-term commitment, so we shall see how the Padres build around him. This isn’t the offense to take them to the playoffs. Watch how this team changes as the season progresses, and more of their farm system starts to make it’s way into the majors.

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