Team Offense, Miami Marlins

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished last in the majors a in 2018 with 3.66 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Don Mattingly order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the actual numbers from the 2018 Marlins. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.08
• Probable lineup: 3.88
• Worst lineup: 3.53
• Regressed lineup: 3.88

The Marlins got rid of J.T. Realmuto, and having J.T. Riddle hardly makes up for the loss. Is he batting fifth because Mattingly thinks he is going to be a power hitting shortstop?

There is an amazing lack of power on the team. The default lineup bats Neil Walker fourth, while the LAT bats him ninth. That’s the spot for a lead-off man not good enough to be at the top of the order, very different than a clean-up hitter. Even the pitchers have a slugging percentage 37 points lower than their OBP. Mattingly is pushing for small ball this season with good reason.

Manager Don Mattingly realizes that if his Marlins are going to score runs, most often they’re going to have to do it the old fashioned way — one at a time rather than in bunches.

“We’ll have to be a little more creative and a little more traditional,” Mattingly said. “Anytime we have a chance to score a run I think we’ve got to look at trying to score a run. I think the trend in the game is, don’t give up outs, don’t give up big innings. That may work for some clubs, not sure that it works for us.”

USAToday.com

It’s the best solution to a problem offense. The Marlins will need to work to push the few people on base around to home plate.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Cleveland Indians
• Oakland Athletics
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Houston Astros
• Colorado Rockies
• Washington Nationals
• Atlanta Braves
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Chicago Cubs
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Minnesota Twins
• Texas Rangers
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Cincinnati Reds
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Seattle Mariners
• New York Mets
• Chicago White Sox
• Kansas City Royals
• Detroit Tigers
• San Diego Padres
• San Francisco Giants

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