The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers finished twelfth in the majors and seventh in the National League in 2018 with 4.63 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Craig Counsell order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. The actual numbers from 2018 were used for the Brewers pitchers. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.92
- Probable lineup: 4.78
- Worst lineup: 4.38
- Regressed lineup: 4.46
Counsell pretty much nails the lineup accept for the first time through the order. The LAT bats Lorenzo Cain ninth, Christian Yelich first, and Jesus Aguilar second. The default order has them 1-2-3. (It’s also a brilliant lineup because Jesus is protecting a Christian.) Both the LAT and Counsell bat Mike Moustakas sixth and Yasmani Grandal seventh. The20th order down looks very much like the default one, with Cain and Yelich batting 1-2. It’s a very good batting order.
While lineups tend to make little difference, by doing a better job of capturing a high percentage of the best order, the Brewers default lineup narrows the difference with the Cubs. The Cubs best order beats Brewers by 0.13 runs per game, but the default lineups are separated by just 0.03 runs.
Milwaukee’s offense and manager look up to the task of returning to the playoffs.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Cleveland Indians
- Oakland Athletics
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- Colorado Rockies
- Washington Nationals
- Atlanta Braves
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs
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