The division previews continue with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2018, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2018. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Boston Red Sox
- Position Player WAR: 28.9
- Pitcher Total: 20.3
- Core Total: 49.2
Boston mostly stood pat as far as the core of the team was concerned. They did allow Craig Kimbrel to walk, but with Ryan Braiser taking over as the closer, every player listed on the sheet was with the Red Sox at the end of 2018.
It’s a fairly safe bet the Red Sox are not going to win 108 games this season. A win total that high is usually a combination of a talented team getting extra lucky breaks. That said, the B-core of this team, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. are all still in their primes, so the position players should be productive for a while. I would expect some fall-off from J.D. Martinez, simply due to his age.
The starting staff is solid. As a group, they do not walk batters, and the Red Sox defense takes care of the few balls put in play. I don’t see much upside here, and some downside from the injury history of Nate Eovaldi and David Price. Maybe the bullpen is not as good, but most of these starters can go fairly deep in games. This should not be a team that is looking for an opener.
The team sports the highest position player core WAR in the division, the highest pitching core WAR, and the highest core WAR overall. They may not win 108 games, but I still might take the over on 100 wins.
New York Yankees
- Position Player WAR: 27.6
- Pitcher Total: 18.0
- Core Total: 45.6
The Yankees are right behind the Red Sox in all three core WAR categories. They have some upside on offense as Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres get to post full seasons, and Gary Sanchez probably regresses to his mean, which should be an improvement. I would not be surprised to see an improvement from Giancarlo Stanton as well.
Note that the Yankees are by far the best team in the division up the middle, even with Sanchez having an off year and Didi Gregorius on the illjured list. So he Yankees are not only strong up the middle, they are fairly deep, too.
The downside appears to be injuries to the pitching staff. Luis Servino is already injured, as is set-up man Dellin Betances. CC Sabathia is still working back from knee and heart problems.
The Yankees didn’t stand pat, however, acquiring James Paxton, who could easily serve as the ace of the staff. He has an injury history as well. The offense may need to hit on all cylinders to overcome potential pitching woes.
The Yankees are an excellent team and once again will give the Red Sox a run for their money.
Tampa Bay Rays
- Position Player WAR: 16.8
- Pitcher Total: 14.5
- Core Total: 31.3
The Rays continue to be one of my favorite teams, as they always show there are ways to win on a shoestring. The depth chart I looked at listed only three starting pitchers, so I threw in 1.5 WAR for the openers. The Rays are changing the landscape of how the core pitchers of a team get evaluated. The pure starters produced 9.2 WAR last season (most of that from Blake Snell), while the rest of the staff produced another nine.
The Rays went out and acquired some good players to improve the team. Mike Zunino gives them a solid catcher. Tommy Pham gets on base. Avisail Gracia is capable of putting the ball in play and accumulating lots of hits. Charile Morton is a good pitcher capable of giving the bullpen a rest. For some reason, these players didn’t fit on their teams, so the Rays found scooped them up.
The Rays need to find a way to beat the Yankees and Red Sox, however. They went 17-21 against those two teams. Turning that around to just 21-17 might earn them a playoff slot.
This is a team worth watching.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Position Player WAR: 11.1
- Pitcher Total: 3.0
- Core Total: 14.1
The Blue Jays are not very good, but at least there is talent on the horizon. They have solid position players in Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, Kevin Pillar, and Randal Grichuk. Lourdes Gurriel is on the way. When I saw him play in a AA game last year, he was surrounded by sons of major leaguers who were all hitting well. Bichette, Biggio, and Guerrero are all young, so watch for the Blue Jays offense to make a leap forward in the next couple of years.
The pitching staff is meh. Maybe Clay Buchholz continues his comeback and becomes the ace. Mabye Matt Shoemaker stays healthy. Maybe Marcus Stroman bounces back. Mabye the staff is mehbe.
The Jays won’t finish last, the offense might be pretty good, but they are likely far behind the Rays.
Baltimore Orioles
- Position Player WAR: -02
- Pitcher Total: 3.4
- Core Total: 3.2
The Orioles may be the worst team I ever evaluated with this method. The good news is that most of these players aren’t that bad. I suspect the atmosphere of losing last season fed on itself. I expect the new front office to address a lot of the issues. For example, they have nothing personal invested in Chris Davis‘s contract. If he continues to be terrible, I suspect he will be released, and the sunk cost absorbed.
I also suspect Orioles pitchers will be very concerned with spin rate, given the success of that obsession in Houston. Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, and Andrew Cashner are capable of being good pitchers. If better analysis of the type we saw in Houston can get all three working together better, if the Orioles might not be a laughing stock of a team.
The only way for the team to go is up.
Summary
The Red Sox and Yankees fight it out for first place. The Rays have the opportunity to surprise, and I’d love to see a three-way race here. All three get to beat up on the Blue Jays and Orioles, both building for the future.
Probability of winning the division
- Boston Red Sox 43%
- New York Yankees 41%
- Tampa Bay Rays 10%
- Blue Jays 5%
- Baltimore Orioles 1%
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