Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Team Offense, Cincinnati Reds

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds finished tied for eighteenth in the majors and tied for eighth in the National League in 2018 with 4.30 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That David Bell order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the Reds actual results from 2018. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.99
  • Probable lineup: 4.75
  • Worst lineup: 4.26
  • Regressed lineup: 4.44

David Bell and the LAT agree on Joey Votto leading off and Scooter Gennett batting fourth. Apart from the LAT batting Eugenio Suarez second, the Reds default lineup doesn’t differ that much from the LAT. Given that all the batter project to good OBPs, I think the Reds would do well to bat the pitcher eighth.

The Reds own the second highest spread between best and worst lineups seen so far in this study, 0.73 runs. That surprised me because I usually see that when a team has a few poor players. Cincinnati, however, is spread out for the opposite reason. They have a few players with phenomenal OBPs. Misusing those players would cost the team runs. That doesn’t happen in the default lineup, and they are almost arranged in descending OBP. Not a bad way to go.

The Reds should great improve their run scoring from 2017.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

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