Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Team Offense, Toronto Blue Jays

The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays finished seventeenth in the majors and tenth in the American League in 2018 with 4.38 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Charlie Montoyo order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.76
  • Probable lineup: 4.72
  • Worst lineup: 4.55
  • Regressed lineup: 4.42

There are no matches between the best lineup the LAT produces and the RotoChamp projected lineup. In addition, there seem to be some really bad decisions in the projected lineup, like sticking Kendrys Morales and Kevin Pillar back-to-back in the four five slots.

Yet, this lineup captures 80% of the run scoring potential of the best lineup, even with a small spread between the top and bottom orders on the LAT. The 2019 Blue Jays may be the best example of the lineup not mattering. I suspect that the placement of the veterans in the middle of the order is to take pressure off other players as they develop.

The team went young this year, so don’t expect this lineup to remain in place. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. will be joining the team at some point, which should improve the offense. This team has a nice core, and while this may not be the year for them to shine, four of five of these players will reach their primes together, so the Jays could be in for a very nice offensive run.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

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