The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates finished tied for eighteenth in the majors and tied for eighth in the National League in 2018 with 4.30 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Clint Hurdle order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the Pirates actual results from 2018. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.45
- Probable lineup: 4.14
- Worst lineup: 3.82
- Regressed lineup: 4.04
The LAT disagrees with the Pirates default lineup on two important players. The LAT sees Lonnie Chisenhall batting high in the order rather than eighth. It also sees Francisco Cervelli batting ninth instead of fifth, setting the table for the top of the order rather than the bottom of the order.
I was surprised to see Chisenhall eighth, as his projections are pretty good. Maybe the Pirates are more concerned with his overall career numbers, which show a .320 OBP. He spent a lot of time hurt during the last two seasons, so his high OBP in that time is based on a small sample size. Still, the Marcels take that into account, and regress toward the mean accordingly.
Cervelli batting ninth makes sense in another regard. As a catcher, his body takes a lot of abuse. The less he comes to the plate, the chance of injury goes down a bit. This is a situation where his high OBP comes in very handy.
Overall, this looks like a disappointing Pirates offense. The Reds made real strides, and are on a par with the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs. The Pirates will need outstanding pitching to avoid finishing last in the division.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Cleveland Indians
- Oakland Athletics
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- Colorado Rockies
- Washington Nationals
- Atlanta Braves
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Minnesota Twins
- Texas Rangers
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Cincinnati Reds
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