Three Pitches

James Paxton tracks how he does on the first three pitchers to a batter:

Paxton, 30, asked the Mariners’ analytics department to give him a printout of a statistic he was tracking himself: the percentage of at-bats that, after three pitches, were either in a 1-2 count or already completed. He named the statistic A3P— After 3 Pitches — and monitors it often, rather than relying on more conventional statistics such as earned run average or wins and losses.

“I can’t control some of those things,” he said. “I try to focus on the things I can control. And I can control if I’m attacking the hitter.”

NYTimes.com

While James Wagner paints this as more modern thinking, I remember Billy Beane talking about this many years ago. It’s the third pitch, not the first that greatly determines the outcome of the plate appearance. A 1-2 count is more likely to favor the pitcher than 0-1, and 2-1 is much more likely to favor the hitter than 1-0. When I live blog an event, it’s the count after three pitches that I report.

Otherwise, the article shows just how old school a lot of players remain when it comes to statistics. Of the ones on record, only Adam Ottavino seems to get it:

“We’re trying to strip away all the luck factors so you can be as real with yourself as possible,” he said. “If you’re not doing that, you’re going to ride the roller coaster really bad, and you’re lying to yourself.”

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2Hdl30g