The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished tied for twenty first in the majors and eleventh in the National League in 2018 with 4.18 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Gabe Kapler order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the Phillies actual results from 2018. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.96
- Probable lineup: 4.69
- Worst lineup: 4.29
- Regressed lineup: 4.40
The Phillies added four new players to the lineup, and all four are slated to bat in the top five in the order. Andrew McCutchen, Jean Seagura, and Bryce Harper set the table for Rhys Hoskins, while JT Realmuto finishes the sequence. The LAT agrees those should be the batters at the top of the lineup, but does disagree with the order a bit. The best lineup leads off with Harper with Hoskins bating second, getting the two best hitters on the team the most plate appearances.
Of course, that works better if Cesar Hernandez bats ninth instead of eighth. The LAT agrees with Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera batting sixth and seventh. Interestingly, the low capture of the best order could be fixed by simply flipping 2-3 and 8-9 from the default order. The 28th best lineup, scoring 4.95 runs per game, bats Harper second and Segura third, while the pitchers bat eighth and Hernandez ninth.
All that said, I do like this lineup. McCutchen will work the count on pitchers, while Segura gets on with an ability to swing at good pitches and make contact. It should be more difficult to pitch around Harper with Hoskins behind him, and the rest of the order does a pretty good job of getting on base. The Phillies spent a lot of money, and their fans should see a nice offensive show.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Cleveland Indians
- Oakland Athletics
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- Colorado Rockies
- Washington Nationals
- Atlanta Braves
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Minnesota Twins
- Texas Rangers
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Cincinnati Reds
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks
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