The Astros and the Dodgers square in the 2017 World Series starting Tuesday night at 8 PM EDT in Los Angeles. It looks to be a battle of one excellent pitching staff against one excellent offense. Here is how the two offense ranked in their respective leagues.
| Statistic | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 5.53 (1st) | 4.75 (6th) |
| Batting Avg. | .282 (1st) | .249 (11th-T) |
| OBP | .346 (1st) | .334 (3rd-T) |
| Slugging Pct. | .478 (1st) | .437 (4th-T) |
| Home Runs | 238 (2nd) | 221 (4th) |
| Stolen Base % | 70% (12th-T) | 73% (6th-T) |
The Astros posted the best offense in the American League, as they hit for average, got on base, and hit for power. About the only thing they did poorly as an offense was steal bases. The Astros will lose their desginated hitter in the four games in Los Angeles, but given that Houston designated hitters posted a .224/.283/.382 slash line, they might not be missed that much.
The Dodgers eschewed batting average overall to concentrate on OBP and slugging percentage. They rank low in BA, but in the top four in both OBP and slugging percentage. That slugging number comes a great job at smacking home runs.
In a way, the Astros have a rich team’s offense, and the Dodgers a poor team’s offense. The Yankees of the late 1990s hit like the Astros do now, excelling in all aspects at the plate. If a team tried to avoid getting hit, the Yankees would take the walk. If an opponent made a mistake, the Yankees could hit the ball out of the park. It’s tough to stop all three areas of offense.
An offense like the Dodgers could be stopped by taking away the OBP, forcing them to swing at pitches. Yes, they’ll hit some homers, but they may not be able to sustain a rally.
Here are the league ranks on the pitching side of the ledger:
| Statistic | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 4.12 (5th) | 3.38 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.32 (4th) | 3.58 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.9 (2nd) | 9.6 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.2 (8th-T) | 2.8 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 26.6 (4th) | 25.5 (5th) |
| BABIP | .302 (9th) | .284 (1st) |
Here, the Dodgers pitchers shine through as the best in the series. They stop runs with strikeouts, they stop runs by limiting walks, and they do a decent job of limiting home runs. Given their low BABIP, the defense handles balls in play extremely well.
The Astros pitchers do strike out a ton of batters, but they are not very good at preventing walks, the one area where an opponent can hamstring the Dodgers offense. They also allow a bit of a high BABIP, which surprises me. Watching the defense in the playoffs, they appeared to do a good job. They certainly throw the ball with accuracy.
There is also the Justin Verlander factor. Verlander only pitched for the Astros for a month. Had he been there the entire year, the Astros might have ranked higher in the above categories.
On the other hand, the Dodgers pitching staff seemed always be in some state of injury. Ranking first in all those categories with good pitchers missing significant time is quite an achievement.
I like the Dodgers to win this series. I don’t expect a sweep, but I would estimate the Dodgers have a 55% chance of bringing home the trophy. I would prefer the Astros win, simply because I like the team with the longest drought to end their misery, but I would not bet on that happening this season.
Enjoy!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2z1Jc5M
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